Warriors’ use of small ball creates defensive issues

The Golden State Warriors’ start to the season suffered a bit of a speed bump on Dec. 8 in the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

During that game, Andrew Bogut left halfway through due to a knee injury, and hasn’t played since. He has received two plasma rich platelet injections to his knee, and is still categorized as “out indefinitely” despite participating in practice in full uniform.

The Warriors have gone 5-2 over the stretch, and the big man’s influence is sorely missed. He is the lynchpin and anchor of the defense – losing him affects the team’s defensive mentality, and it hurts even more since the Warriors only have one healthy center on the team roster at the moment.

Before we dissect the current situation with the Warriors, let’s go through some of the pertinent numbers involved with Bogues. The Warriors are allowing 10 more points per 100 possessions while Bogut is sitting – and this figure can’t be cast aside with the “small sample space” excuse, since the Warriors have actually spent more time with Bogut off the court than on it. With Bogut on the floor, the Warriors are a league-leading defense that allows only 93.6 points per 100 possessions. Without, they are 103.6 – sixth highest in the league.

That’s not too bad, isn’t it? Losing your defensive anchor, but still able to keep a top 10 defense is a pretty good achievement for some teams. But just how have the Warriors been able to pull off such a move? If Bogut is their defensive lynchpin that keeps everything together, how are they able to maintain a top-10 defense in his absence?

By using small ball.

The knock against small ball is that small ball lineups tend to be worse defensively. It makes perfect sense – putting a smaller sized player against a bigger one is bound to create matchup problems that will result in easier shots for the opponent. However, the Warriors’ brand of small is unique, and it might not be one that any other team in the league can replicate.

The Warriors’ starting wing line up of Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green is unique in that they are all similarly sized – Thompson is 6’7”, while Barnes and Green are 6’8”. The similarity in size is important because it gives them flexibility when defending the pick and roll. Whenever two of three personnel are involved in defending the pick and roll, you’ll notice that they’ll execute a swap – the player defending the roll (usually Green) will swap onto the ball handler, while the player originally defending the ball handler moves onto the roll man.

The swap in personnel prevents a breakdown – the purpose of a pick is to generate space and time for the ball handler to exploit, while a defensive switch shuts that down completely. Green is mobile enough to cover ball handlers, and he uses his length and size to bother smaller opponents. Meanwhile, Thompson and Barnes have to work extra hard to prevent the ball from being entered into the post against them.

This works against the pick and roll, but the problem still lies in the lack of a rim protector. Festus Ezeli is the closest thing the Warriors have to that (no, even with his improvement on the defensive end, Mareesse Speights is not a rim protector), and even he allows opponents to shoot 54.2 percent within six feet (admittedly, it is 4.6 percent worse than their season averages).

By comparison, Bogut’s opponents only shoot 38.3 percent for shots within six feet if they are defended by him.

There’s no way to hide it: Bogut’s absence on the defensive end is hurting the Warriors. Ezeli is a capable backup, but there’s a reason why coach Steve Kerr has only played him an average of 16.2 minutes per game since Bogut’s injury. There’s no doubting that he’s improved, but he still has a knack of picking up fouls at the wrong time, and Kerr simply doesn’t trust him.

That leaves Speights and David Lee as the only remaining candidates to fill the Bogut-sized hole on defense. Let’s be honest here: Lee is not a plus defender. He has managed well in the team’s defensive schemes in the past, but play him in an individual role and he will struggle defensively. It’s not a secret — definitely not when you have an entire paper published with the purpose of dissecting your defensive failings.

Speights, on the other hand, has had a rejuvenation season of sorts. He came into preseason ready, and has been one of the biggest benefactors of Kerr’s hiring. Still, he isn’t a rim protector – opponents shoot at a 57.1 percent clip within six feet of the basket when they’re defended by him, which isn’t something you expect from a “rim protector”.

So, here’s the ugly truth: the Warriors’ defense is worse without Bogut. They lack a rim protector – Ezeli is the closest thing they have to one, and he’s about 15 percent worse than what Bogut brings to the table. The Warriors have managed to keep a top-10 defense (just barely at 105 points per 100 possessions) since Bogut’s injury, a shocking drop considering they were the top ranked defense when he was healthy.

They’ve managed some semblance of a top ten defense with their unique switch heavy defense (due to the size similarities between their three wing players), but it’s not a trend that can go on for long – opponents have cracked the 100-point mark five times in the last eight games without Bogut, while they only managed to do so seven times in the 19 games before that.

There’s no way around it: the Warriors need Bogut back if they are to regain their status as the best defensive team in the league. Kerr and his coaching staff can find subtle ways on the defensive end to hide the team’s weakness, but don’t expect a team without a rim protector to go very far in the playoffs, especially in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.