Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors: What to Watch For
By Greg Chin
Happy New Year, Golden State Warriors’ fans!
The Warriors kick off 2015 in a matchup that will pit the best team in the Western Conference against the best team in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors have been a surprise package this season, with no one predicting their meteoric rise to the top of the East this season.
Even more surprising is that they’ve managed to hold on to the top spot despite losing DeMar DeRozan to a groin injury. DeRozan was one of their best offensive players, and was a big factor in their success. Since his injury, Kyle Lowry has stepped up, and helped defend their place in the standings.
The Warriors, on the other hand, are having an incredible season of their own. Likewise, no one predicted that the Warriors would win the West, considering the relative strength of the conference, and the appointment of a new coach. But, the Warriors have thrived under coach Steve Kerr, and have been the league’s most impressive team thus far.
Injuries to the Warriors’ centers Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli have slowed down the Warriors somewhat, as they lost two of their last four games. The injuries have forced Kerr to start Mareesse Speights at the center spot, and their bench depth has been tested.
Key Matchups
Kyle Lowry vs. Stephen Curry: Both teams are very similar in that they are both led by point guards having career years, and are their team’s best players. Kyle Lowry’s tenacity on the defensive end will be an important aspect for the Raptors, as he is their best perimeter defender. It will be up to him to stop Stephen Curry on the defensive end, and lead the team’s offense.
On the other hand, it would be a better option to have Klay Thompson go up against Lowry on defense. Lowry’s size will grant him an advantage over Curry in the post, and you can be sure that it’ll be a tactic that is exploited regularly if given the chance. Thompson’s 6’8” frame is a better alternative, and it makes sense for the Warriors’ best defender to match up against their best perimeter attacker.
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Mareesse Speights: At the time of publishing, Andrew Bogut has been ruled out of the game against the Raptors, while Festus Ezeli remains questionable. If both are out, it will be up to Mareesse Speights to deal with Valanciunas, who is having a career season.
Since DeRozan’s injury, Valanciunas is averaging 12.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He is coming into his own as a player, and the 6’11” Lithuanian will be a hassle to deal with on the boards. Speights, who is 6’10”, will have to work hard to keep them off the boards. Since losing Bogut, the Warriors have averaged 43.5 rebounds per game, 12th highest in the league (they average 45.9 rebounds per game with Bogut healthy – third highest in the league).
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Bench vs. Bench: The Raptors’ bench unit is one of the best in the league. They average 39.6 points per game (fifth highest in the league), and have actually successfully rescued the starters from precarious positions before. Lou Williams is the first man off the bench, and is one of their best shot creators. The Williams – Andre Iguodala matchup will be an interesting one to watch, as Williams is infamous for his isolation plays.
The Warriors’ bench, on the other hand, is looking quite short. With Ezeli and Bogut out, Speights is forced to start, which takes away some of the bench depth the Warriors are known for. Still, there is quality on the bench, with Iguodala, David Lee, and Shaun Livingston. Justin Holiday and Leandro Barbosa have been getting some burn lately, especially Barbosa, who scored 17 points on Tuesday against the Philadelphia 76ers.
Keys to Winning the Game:
- Sticking to the Game Plan on Offense
The Toronto Raptors are 16th in the league for defensive efficiency. If the Warriors are able to execute their routine offensive gameplan, they should be able to overcome what is a league-average defense. The Raptors lack a real lockdown perimeter defender, and their “rim protector” (Valanciunas) averages just one block per game. They’ve allowed 100 or more points in five of their last six games – a good sign for the Warriors’ offense (fourth best in the league).
- More Turnovers, Less Fouls
The Raptors’ offense scores 111.7 points per 100 possessions, and is the second best offense in the league. Despite lacking big offensive firepower, the Raptors are highly efficient due to their lack of turnovers and their ability to draw fouls. They average 11.5 turnovers per game (least in the league), and 25.9 free throw attempts per game (third in the league).
The Warriors will need to be aware of this on the defensive end, and will have to work extra hard to force turnovers without fouling. Opponents average 16.3 turnovers and 24.3 free throw attempts per game against the Warriors. The Warriors have thrived on defense by challenging shots and only allowing opponents to shoot 42 percent against them, so they will have to adapt their defensive plan if they are to succeed against the Raptors.
- Limiting Lowry’s Influence
As I mentioned earlier, Kyle Lowry has been a big part of the Toronto Raptors’ success. He leads the team on offense, and is their best perimeter defender. To succeed, the Warriors will need to cut off his passing lanes, and force him to go one-on-one. Lowry’s best skill is getting his teammates involved. Outside of him and Williams, the Raptors lack a consistent dribble-drive shot creator.
If they can get Lowry to focus on isolation plays rather than creating for his teammates, it’ll go a long way to winning the game.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors. This will be a close game, especially since the Warriors will be without Bogut and Ezeli (probable). The teams are evenly matched, and the coaches will play a big role in the outcome of the game. I trust coach Steve Kerr’s late-game execution over the Raptors’ and Dwane Casey’s, which is why I am giving the slight edge to the Warriors.