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How Expendable is David Lee?

By Tyler Blint- Welsh

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With their hot start to the 2014-2015 season, the Golden State Warriors have put themselves in pole position to win the NBA title this coming spring.

But no matter how well a team is doing on the court, the stark reality of the NBA almost always supersedes any level of success. At the end of the day, the National Basketball Association is a multi- billion dollar business, controlled by rich and powerful businessmen who are willing to do anything to save a buck or two. Every season, this stark reality leaves general managers with difficult decisions to make.

Do they risk their jobs and keep the roster intact even if it will be more costly for ownership, because they feel that certain players give them the best chance at a title? Or do they cave in to the pressure from ownership and trade away useful players in order to avoid the luxury tax, keep their jobs and ensure the happiness of their owners?

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Most NBA fans remember the shocking trade that saw James Harden get shipped out to Houston after contract negotiations left him and the Oklahoma City Thunder only about $4.5 million apart. With an ownership group that has a reputation for being frugal despite having two marketable superstars, a rabid fan base, and being one of the five most profitable franchises in the league, it made sense that Sam Presti decided to break up a core that was a mere months removed from an NBA Finals appearance in order to save a few luxury tax dollars.

In an effort to save money on the luxury tax, the Thunder flipped James Harden for

Jeremy Lamb

(pictured) and other assets.

This season, Warriors general manager Bob Myers has a similar decision to make with David Lee. Though Lee certainly isn’t as dynamic a player as Harden, he is a skilled big man who plays a role that this Warriors team will desperately need filled come playoff time. Lee is a capable scorer (he recently scored his 10,000th career point), an excellent rebounder (average of 9.6 boards per game for his career), and in his new role off the bench, provides Golden State with some much needed depth at the power forward position.

But as the Warriors have shown that thus far, they may not really need Lee. With Lee out for 24 of the first 25 games of this season with a hamstring injury, the Warriors managed to go 22-3 and establish themselves as both the best offensive and defensive team in the NBA. And while Lee hasn’t necessarily disrupted their flow this season (Golden State is currently 34-6), their success both with and without him could be an indicator to their front office that Lee is an expendable piece.

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Why? Let’s take a look at Golden State’s payroll for the next couple of seasons.

Currently, the Warriors payroll is $73.3 million, which is about $10 million over the $63 million salary cap, but a few million dollars short of the $77 million luxury tax threshold. If the Warriors didn’t have significant cap space committed over the next two seasons, then they could feasibly play out this season with their current roster, and reassess their situation over the summer. But, Golden State has over $78 million committed in salary for next season, including $15.4 million to David Lee. For the 2015-2016 season, the salary cap is projected to be $66 million and the luxury tax threshold around $81 million.

Though Golden State would still be below the luxury tax threshold, its payroll does not include the new contract that impending free agent Draymond Green will get this July that is expected to pay him $12-$14 million per season over four years.

Draymond Green has proven to be one of the more versatile and efficient forwards in the NBA this season and will certainly get paid as such this offseason.

Add that to their payroll and the Warriors jump to over $10 million over the luxury tax threshold, which leaves them subject to the new luxury tax agreed upon in the most recent CBA. Under the new terms, teams that are between $10 million and $15 million above the luxury tax threshold must pay $2.50 for every $1 they are above the tax, meaning that if Golden State were about $11 million over the threshold next season, it would be forced to pay the league a $27.5 million luxury tax.

Now the average NBA fan reading this might look at it and think, “$27.5 million? That’s chump change for multi-billionaire owners, right?”

But for a Warriors team that only profited $43 million out of $160 million in total revenue in 2013, a near $30 million tax bill is a huge chunk out of their profit margin. And at the end of the day, the NBA is a business, run by businessmen who want to minimize costs while maximizing their profit.

This leaves the Warriors with two likely options. They may opt to play out the season with Lee on the roster and attempt to trade him in the offseason, or they may try to move Lee by the trade deadline this February for a younger, cheaper back up big man in order to free up cap space to resign Green. As mentioned, Lee could prove to be very useful in the postseason, as his back to the basket game and pick-and-roll prowess lend themselves nicely to the more methodical pace of the playoffs. But, holding onto Lee for too long could severely cripple their chances at retaining Green in the offseason.

As a second round draft choice, Green is set to become a restricted free agent after his rookie deal, if Golden State decides to extend a qualifying offer to him. Doing so allows them to match any competing offers Green receives. Of course, doing so will almost certainly mean the Warriors fall into the luxury tax bracket.

David Lee will almost certainly be on a different roster next season. The only question that remains is if it’s going to be sooner rather than later.

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