Golden State Warriors Analysis: Slacking Defense a Worrying Trend

The Golden State Warriors have laid claim to the best record in the NBA for most of the regular season. They’ve done so by combining an exciting, fast paced offense, with a stingy defense that limits opponents’ shot-making ability.

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When critics theorized that the Warriors wouldn’t be able to win anything due to their over-reliance on shooting jumpers, fans would defend the Warriors’ title credentials by diverting their attention to the eye-popping defensive numbers. If the Warriors weren’t able to win by making shots, they could (in theory) rely on their defense.

After all, the old adage is: defense wins championships.

However, a worrying trend has popped up over the past ten games. Since losing to the Atlanta Hawks before the All-Star break, the Warriors have had some lacklustre performances. Fatigue, complacency, and “the dog days of the regular season” are all plausible excuses for the disappointing performances, but the stats suggest that something more worrying is afoot.

Over the past ten games, the Warriors’ defensive rating has dropped to 102.1 – good enough for 12^th in the current standings. For comparison, the Warriors’ defensive rating before that ten-game sample was 97.8. And in those ten games, five were against teams that ranked in the bottom ten for offensive efficiency (Philadelphia, New York, Indiana, Minnesota, Brooklyn).

All season long, the Warriors’ ability to contest shots has been a strength for them. Their switch-heavy defense utilises the similarity in size and speed between Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green to help reduce the amount of separation opposing offenses get on picks. Their frantic switching also creates turnovers, which in turn allows them to create more fast break opportunities.

However, in that same ten game sample, the Warriors’ opponents are shooting 44.4 percent from the field – a two percent drop from what they’ve been averaging for the rest of the season. Putting that into context, they fall from first to 13^th in that category.

Their opponents are actually averaging less attempts, but are converting them at a higher rate – which is a major concern. We’ve seen some poor shooting nights from the team lately, which has contributed to a few losses, but it’s fair to assume that if they were playing their league-best defense, a few of those close losses could have been wins (Indiana, Brooklyn).

Now, I’m not suggesting that the sky is falling, but the decline in the Warriors’ defense is a worrying sign. Earlier on in the season, the Warriors were winning games despite poor shooting nights due to their defensive intensity. Teams like Indiana, Brooklyn and Boston should not be scoring more than 100 points against this defense.