Keys to a Hypothetical Warriors vs. Blazers Playoff Series
By Dale Johnson
As the final weeks of the NBA season begin to tick away, the Western Conference Playoff picture is starting to take shape.
The Golden State Warriors are all but set to be the No. 1 seed, and it is very likely that the Warriors’ opponent tonight, the Portland Trail Blazers, will settle in as the No. 4 seed.
Meaning tonight could be a potential second round playoff preview. So how do these teams stack up, and what would the Warriors need to do to beat Portland in a 7 game series? Let’s take a closer look.
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KEY MATCH UPS
Stephen Curry vs. Damian Lillard
For both of these teams, it all starts with their dynamic point guards. Curry, as we all see on a nightly basis, is playing at an incredibly high level this season, averaging 23.3 points and 7.9 assists per game. He hit those numbers last night without even playing in the fourth quarter. Lillard has a respectable line of 21.3 points and 6.2 assists per game.
In a bit of an oddity in scheduling, the Warriors and Blazers haven’t played each other since the third game of the year, a 95-90 Warriors win. A lot has changed since then, but the importance of both of these point guards still reigns supreme. For the Warriors to be successful, they need to contain Lillard and not let him get in a rhythm. The nights Lillard goes off are when he gets hot from three-point land, so using a combination of Curry’s quickness and ability to create steals and Klay Thompson‘s length on defense will be key to frustrating Lillard.
The key for Curry against Lillard will be his ability to get to the rim. Lillard defends the three-point line well, but once he is beat off the dribble, opponents score on him at an incredibly high rate. Good things happen with Curry drives; he either finishes, gets fouled (where he shoots the best free throw percentage in the league) or is able to find the wide open man after the defense has collapsed on him in the lane. Harrison Barnes shooting a corner 3 is like clock work.
For what’s it worth, Curry had 21 points in that early meeting vs. Lillard, who only had 11 points and finished -3 for the game.
Apr 13, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) and Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dive for a loose ball during overtime at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
Draymond Green vs. LaMarcus Aldridge
Just think about how much more of a matchup nightmare the Blazers would be if David Lee was the one in charge of containing Aldridge. Instead, the Warriors have their potential defensive player of the year to cover Aldridge, one of the best power forwards in the game.
Aldridge isn’t a true banger, but he doesn’t shoot many threes either. He is hyper-efficient in the paint and midrange and leads the team in both points (23.5 per game) and rebounds (10.4 per game). He’s a walking double-double. To be successful, the Warriors will call on Green to lock up Aldridge the best he can, taking him out of his comfort zone. That means pushing him out of the paint whenever possible and not letting him slide in to the lane on the pick and roll. When Green is out of the paint defending Aldridge, Andrew Bogut and the rest of the team need to crash the boards hard to make up for Green often being canceled out by Aldridge.
And while we won’t see Aldridge on the court tonight due to a sprained left index finger, he’ll certainly be a key if the Warriors and Blazers do meet in the playoffs.
Nov 2, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) posts up against Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) during the first quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
Warriors Bench vs. Trail Blazers Bench
If there was ever a clear advantage for the Warriors in this matchup, it’s the top-notch reserves that the Dubs have at their disposal, and the ways Steve Kerr has found to blend that unit together.
Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Mo Speights will take on a unit headlined by Steve Blake, Chris Kaman and C.J. McCollum. The Blazers have serviceable backups, but the Warriors’ bench is borderline explosive some nights and the defensive prowess of Iggy and Livingston causes little drop-off in defensive efficiency between the first and second units. Exploiting the weak Blazers bench will be paramount in the Warriors success. If the Dubs bench can maintain and stretch leads, the Blazers starters have to come in sooner and will be more tired in end-game scenarios.
Apr 13, 2014; Portland, OR, USA; Golden State Warriors forward
Andre Iguodala(9) shoots over Portland Trail Blazers forward
Nicolas Batum(88) during the first quarter at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports
X-Factor
Roaracle Arena
Locking up that No. 1 seed is huge for the Warriors because it means home court advantage at the best home court in the NBA. The Warriors have only lost two games all year at Oracle, and the already-electric atmosphere will be turned up all the way come playoff time. No team wants to take on the Warriors in Oakland, and if at worst the Warriors just defend home court, they win the series in 7 games.
Final thoughts
The Warriors and Trail Blazers are similarly built teams, with outstanding point guard play and great big men. But the Warriors’ incredible depth, defensive prowess and home court would propel them to a series win.