Golden State Warriors: The Festus Ezeli Dilemma

Note: this article has been edited. A previous version listed Festus Ezeli as a second round pick. Ezeli was selected with the 30th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft.

The NBA is a very fickle league, where the smallest of decisions could change a team’s future. Good front offices plan several months in advance and try to predict every possible outcome, while bad front offices don’t often have the foresight to plan ahead.

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For the Golden State Warriors, there is a matter that needs their attention, and could choose to make a decision by the end of December or defer that decision to the end of the season.

The Warriors will have the choice of extending Festus Ezeli (along with Harrison Barnes), but will have until October 31 to decide. If they choose not to, both will become restricted free agents when the season ends. While Barnes is the bigger name of the two, the dilemma lies with Ezeli. Ezeli has had an injury-plagued career, and really only has one full season under his belt. Extending his contract based on the one season could end up being a risk, especially if he suffers another injury. Locking him into a contract also hurts the Warriors flexibility next offseason, as the contract extension will be a part of their payroll.

But, on the flip side, if Ezeli has an impressive season or one that indicates he has promise within this league, the Warriors could be priced out of matching the offer sheet he chooses to sign. With the salary cap rising, Ezeli could be looking at a starting future salary upwards of $10 million per season.

Yes, that’s right: Festus Ezeli could be signing a four year, $40 million contract extension. And that value might even be an underestimation.

On a recent podcast with Amin Elhasssan, Grantland’s Zach Lowe indicated that he had been talking to several front-office general managers who firmly believed that Ezeli could be up for a big extension. Despite only playing two full seasons and having injury struggles, a big paycheck could be in the books for the Warriors’ backup big man.

And if you think about it, Ezeli’s big payday kind of makes sense. He showed some promise last season and was part of the Warriors’ impressive bench lineup. His averages of 4.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he had brought some nice defense, showed the foundations of a good post-game, and surprised everyone with a few athletic throw-downs off misses.

He was always going to be a backup to the Warriors’ Andrew Bogut, regardless of how he played. Bogut fits the Warriors’ offense better as a facilitator and passing option, and despite his improved ball-handling (Lowe points out that Ezeli has “stone hands” – to which I agree), Ezeli won’t ever be the sort of passer Bogut is.

However, not many teams will need Ezeli to be a passing option for their offense. Some teams could be happy with him playing hard defense, setting screens and generally staying away from the ball on offense. A good comparison for this role would be Omer Asik and Robin Lopez. Both players are earning around $12 million a season (Asik has an average salary of $11 million, Lopez’s is $13 million), so it’s not ridiculous to suggest that Ezeli could be earning that sort of money. Both players are more established than Ezeli, but Festus has age on his side (25 years old, 2 years younger than Lopez, 4 years younger than Asik).

And with the rising salary cap, we’ll be seeing a lot of money being thrown around recklessly next offseason. Practically every team will have cap space, and teams that believe Ezeli could be their starting center will be willing to spend big on the big man.

For the Warriors, that’s where the dilemma occurs. Do they match an offer for Ezeli from a team that wants him as their starter and is willing to pay him starter money? Does it seem like a waste of money for the Warriors to pay him a starting player’s salary only to have him on the bench? Or is it a bigger waste to have him walk away for free, especially with Bogut’s creaky knees seemingly ready to give way at any second? And what about their future cap space – should the Warriors sign their backup big to a pricey contract when Stephen Curry is about to receive a max contract extension, which could price them out of the free agency market?

Of course, this is all dependent on Ezeli putting up a good season. And by “good”, it doesn’t have to be a 10-point, 10-rebound average. All he needs to do is improve slightly from the previous season, and teams might be willing to take a flier on the once injury-maligned big man.

It might not be a matter that needs urgent resolving, but the Warriors should start thinking about their options moving forward.

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