The Harsh Reality of the Kevin Durant-Warriors Dream

By Greg Chin | Aug 11, 2015

The 2016 offseason looks to be an exciting one. When it was announced that the new NBA TV deal had broken the $1 billion mark, various front offices were already predicting the effect it would have on the salary cap. The result was a significant jump, one that is projected to propel the cap upwards of $89 million for the 2016-17 season.

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In comparison, the salary cap for the upcoming 2015-16 season will be a paltry $70 million.

What is the significance of all this, you ask? Well, one of the biggest upcoming free agents during the 2016 offseason is none other than Kevin Durant (and well, LeBron James, but that’s a different story altogether). Teams have been keeping their 2016 cap space open in hopes that they can woo the 2014 MVP, and 2016 looks to be Durant’s very own “The Decision”.

Virtually every team has been linked with Durant, especially the contenders. The Golden State Warriors have made several comments about acquiring Durant (but who wouldn’t?) and Durant has responded to the flirting by admitting that he would “seriously consider” joining Golden State if an offer were to come by.

But is it possible? Could the Warriors really land one of the best players in the NBA and further solidify their championship credentials? Could we really see the Slim Reaper alongside the Splash Brothers wreaking havoc on the NBA?

Jan 16, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) attempts a shot against Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) during the fourth quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

With the updated figures from the recent trades and contract extensions, the Warriors will be looking at a payroll of $81.89 million. This figure doesn’t include the cap holds of Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli, who are both restricted free agents. It does, however, include the full $7.05 million owed to Jason Thompson – a partially guaranteed contract worth $2.65 million if he is waived before June 26, 2016.

This projected figure leaves the Warriors with $7.11 million in cap room (if the cap is projected to be $89 million). Durant, who will presumably want the max, is eligible for maximum contract worth 30 percent of the cap ($26.7 million). As it stands, the Warriors cannot sign Durant outright as a free agent, meaning they will have to convince the Oklahoma City Thunder to conduct a sign and trade (which has its own stipulations, which could end up opening another can of worms).

Those savvy enough will now start to feel reality sink in. Creating $26.7 million in cap space is a nigh impossible task.

So let’s look at ways the Warriors could open up some cap room. In our scenario, they’ve already waived the qualifying offers for Barnes and Ezeli, which will allow them to be unrestricted free agents. There is no way the Warriors go this route, as it essentially means they have no shot of re-signing any of them. So their cap holds of a combined $8.2 million need to be included in our calculation.

Jun 7, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors general manager Bob Myers during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers in game two of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Next, the Warriors could waive Jason Thompson, which will save them close to $4.35 million in cap space. If the Warriors are desperate, they could also choose not to opt into Shaun Livingston’s final year of his contract (which is a team option) – so that’s another $5.782 million in cap space.

Are you starting to see how this is practically an impossible task? There is no way the Warriors can carve out $25 million in cap room to sign Durant outright. The only way is through a sign-and-trade.

Here’s where we’ll truly learn if Bob Myers has any Jedi mind-tricks. The Warriors have to come up with a trade package enticing enough to convince the Thunder to help facilitate a move. Keeping in mind, the move would weaken their team, while strengthening a conference rival. The only trade package I would deem worthy is one that includes both Barnes and Klay Thompson – and even then, the Warriors would have to include a treasure chest of future draft picks to make it worthwhile.

My belief is that the Thunder will not conduct a sign-and-trade with any team, unless it is absolutely certain (without a shadow of a doubt) that Durant wishes to leave. Until he publically announces so, the organization should try to do everything possible to convince him to stay.

Unfortunately, that means the pipe dream of Kevin Durant as a Warrior is over. It is close to impossible, and would require a miracle. Sorry to burst your bubble there, optimistic fans, but Kevin Durant isn’t coming to Golden State.

Unless, he’s willing to take the veteran’s minimum.

Next: Warriors and Kings Taking Different Paths

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