Blue Man Hoop
Fansided

Golden State Warriors: Can the Fastest Team in the NBA Get Even Faster?

By Angelo Mendoza

facebooktwitterreddit

It’s truly a shame that Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has had to take an indefinite leave of absence following recent surgeries to address the problems with his back. After carrying the weight of being a first-time head coach and now subsequently finding himself under pressure to repeat the championship performance he put on last year, one could say it was only a matter of time before his back gave out.

More from Warriors News

But in Kerr’s unexpected absence, interim head coach Luke Walton has had the opportunity to show that his promotion to associate head coach after the departure of Alvin Gentry was a move well deserved. One has to question, however, whether he can handle the stress associated with the position until Kerr gets back. After going on record to say he believes the team with the league’s highest pace last year can get even faster this season, it would appear that Walton may also be faltering under the physical and mental load that every NBA coach unfortunately has to bear.

When asked by a reporter about the length of time it would take for new guys like Jason Thompson to adjust to Golden State’s system, Walton answered with a statement of uncertainty, then added this little gem that went unnoticed:

"“It’s obviously tough being the one new guy out there, [especially since] we’re trying to work offensively at a much faster pace this year because the other thirteen guys all know what we’re doing already.”"

For those unfamiliar with the term “pace” used from a statistical standpoint, pace refers to the number of possessions per 48 minutes for a team. Just to recap last season: per NBAStats.com, the Warriors posted the second-best offensive rating in the league (109.7 — just 0.1 below the Los Angeles Clippers) and the best defensive rating in the league (98.2) while operating at a league-high pace (100.69). That means last season, the Warriors averaged 100.69 possessions per game, which ended up being the highest pace in the NBA last season.

It’s rare to have the team with highest pace lead the league in defensive rating. If we chart the relationship between defensive rating and pace, what we get is a neutral correlation, but an incredibly clear outlier in the upper left-hand corner:

Defensive rating (x) v. Pace (Y)

If x is the amount of points scored by an opposing team and y is the number of possessions for a team per game, it’s apparent that most teams last year seemed to average around 95 or 96 possessions per game with varying levels of defense. Golden State is shown to be the one team in the NBA capable of playing at the fastest level possible offensively while doing a great job at keeping opponents from scoring — and now they want to play at a faster pace? Yeah, good luck with that.

Not to write them off — there’s certainly a faster pace the Warriors can play at, but how that would affect their defensive efficiency is the biggest question mark. For example, the 1991 Warriors posted the second-highest average points per game (116.6) while playing at a pace of 103.6, which was good enough for second in the league. Their high octane offense was designed by the run-and-gun guru himself, Don Nelson, who created a system that directly played to the offensive strengths of team leaders Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond and Chris Mullin, otherwise known as Run TMC. That team would go on to win 44 games, but they were booted in the second round of the playoffs.

The following year would see the departure of Richmond, but the team continued to play at a high pace (103.4 – 1st in NBA) while scoring the highest amount of points per game (118.7). That team would go on to win 55 games, but they would suffer a first-round exit. The main reason for both of these teams not going far in the postseason was the fact that both were ranked at the bottom in defensive rating. Don Nelson’s small ball tactics are just one of the reasons why loyalists like Charles Barkley believe teams need a big man to anchor a roster in the paint: not only does small ball shy away from scoring opportunities for low post players, but it normally leaves interior defenses weak.

Lucky for the 2015 Warriors, their roster has a guy named Draymond Green, who plays defense like a 7-foot center despite him standing just 6-foot-7. His long arms, quick feet, high basketball IQ and natural tenacity are just a few unique attributes that give him the edge when defending bigger big men, and it’s mostly due to his defensive presence inside that allowed Golden State to play small ball so effectively. With him in a small ball lineup, the Warriors are able to utilize Green as a floor spacer and distributor without having to give up much defensively.

Therefore, one of the determining factors when considering how much faster of a pace the Warriors can play at without there being a significant drop off defensively is how much Green improves at defending against and rebounding over bigger guys when within seven feet of the basket. The same goes for Marreese Speights and Jason Thompson, who are both expected to anchor small ball lineups for the Warriors come this season.

We also know Kerr and his staff draw inspiration from Gregg Popovic and the San Antonio Spurs in terms of execution, so it’s likely the Warriors coaching staff will also be working on getting the team to execute set plays with ease. That means every backdoor cut will have to be timed correctly, every screen will have to be set in place perfectly, and every roll man will have a route to follow to the tee. There’s no more excuses for why they can’t operate like a well oiled machine after winning a title in their first year playing in a new system.

An interesting tidbit made available by Jalen Rose in the video above: the average Warriors player apparently holds the ball for less than three seconds before dishing it off. Were the Warriors to play their same system at a faster rate of execution, imagine a team running backdoor cuts and down screens while the ball moves from player to player within one or two seconds: defenses would struggle to react to it, let alone find ways to stop it. It would be so chaotic, like a blur of things happening at once, and the human brain can only do so much multitasking.

Lastly, we can expect the team to play more in transition, utilizing the outlet passing abilities of Andrew Bogut, Green and Speights to lead to fast, easy points on the break. Per NBAStats.com, the Warriors scored the highest amount of points off turnovers (19.7), in addition to the highest amount of fast break points (20.9). If the Warriors are able execute their fast break opportunities even more efficiently — whether that be a Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson transition three, a breakaway dunk from Harrison Barnes or a cherry pick layup from Leandro Barbosa — there’s no telling how dangerous this team could become.

Next: Bogut Suffers Broken Nose in Preseason Game

More from Blue Man Hoop

Home/Warriors News