May 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors small forward Harrison Barnes (40) celebrates after a basket against the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter of game three of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors would not have made it out within an eyelash of the Western Conference Finals without significant contributions up and down the roster. However, a case can be made that the growth of Harrison Barnes was the largest reason why the Warriors flourished when many thought they couldn’t. Therefore, one could say that the progression of Barnes’ game is the significant theme going into an offseason with many question marks for an up and coming team.

The bigger question, though, is just where will Barnes’ game end up in the future.

During the regular season, Barnes’ numbers were rather pedestrian. But his numbers do resemble another up and comer in the league who was integral to his teams success.  Their two season statistics are listed below with Barnes on top.

Comparison of the Barnes and the other player are very similar in the regular season.  Granted, this other players’ team played a bit slower pace, but, the minutes are similar and the overall production is identical.

In the playoffs, the two players also had significant injuries that led to their roles being increased during their playoff runs.  Both players become responsible for much more than just filling a role.  They became primary options in the offensive and defensive schemes. Here are their statistics side by side for their respective playoff runs.

Again, the two players’ statistics are very similar. Remember, playoff basketball usually results in slower pace due to the ability to scout other teams’ plays and tendencies.  We all saw the pace of the Denver Nuggets slow down as the series went on, as well as the Spurs series when Games 5 and 6 resulted in the games being very bogged down and ugly. So, the comparison of these two players during the playoff run is more apples to apples.

Who is the mystery player?  Drum roll…..Chicago Bulls’ Jimmy Butler.The same Jimmy Butler who become so important to the Bulls that he had to play every minute three straight games during their postseason.

Butler is heralded as one of the up and coming players in the league due to his versatility and athleticism. He has also made Luol Deng expendable, which is no easy task. He is also in his second season in the NBA. What does this mean for Barnes?

Well, it means he is going to be more than serviceable in the league.  Next year, you should his stats climbs in shooting and free throw percentage as he becomes more adjusted to the rigors of the pro game. More importantly, you should see his attempts go up a tick as well for multiple reasons.

First, he should be more comfortable in the offense. So, in areas where he differed or was reluctant to shoot in his rookie year, should now become times where he knows he must shoot.  In addition, the experience of the playoffs has given him the confidence he lacked during the regular season. He became a viable go-to option during stretches of games and that should continue going into next year.

May 8, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Chicago Bulls small forward Jimmy Butler (21) falls on the court after being fouled by Miami Heat point guard Mario Chalmers (not pictured) during the first half in game two of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

But, there are a couple of issues that may hinder Barnes’ inevitable climb. The first being the presence of two players in the position he flourished at during the postseason–the power forward spot.  If David Lee does not get hurt, are we even having the discussions regarding the Warriors’ great run? Probably not.  For everything David Lee is, he is not the mismatch nightmare that Barnes is for traditional power forwards.

The athleticism, quickness and shooting range Barnes possesses coupled with his size and strength, creates early 2000 Lamar Odom-type match-up problems for other teams.

The other is Carl Landry. This may be a blessing for the Warriors, and they do not know it. The best lineup the Warriors had on the floor during the playoffs did not include Landry.  It was a four “smalls” and Andrew Bogut. This lineup spread out the floor and gave Barnes the driving lanes to take the large power forwards off the dribble or create mis-matches against opposing point guards.

For everything Landry is, he is a flawed basketball player that can be replaced by giving Barnes more minutes in that slot.  In addition, Barnes has the ability to guard positions one to three now, and perhaps power forwards in the future (sounds like what Jimmy Butler does for Chicago).

For Barnes, the conversation about his future is an interesting one because it would not have been possible without David Lee’s injury. It may lead to more small-ball lineups next year for the Dubs because they proved they could still rebound and defend with the current personnel.  Therefore, Barnes’ numbers should see a decent hike next season to about 16 points, seven rebounds, two assists, one block with the percentages resembling 47 percent on field goals 40 percent three-pointers and 80 percent on free throws. But, these increases will only occur if Landry is not retained, which he shouldn’t be, for multiple reasons, but that’s another matter.

It should be the Warriors’ priority to bet on Barnes for the franchise’s future, much the same way that they did during the playoff run, if they want to take the next step.

The best comparison I can give is how James Harden developed. It took Harden four years before he came the bearded beast he is now, and he doesn’t have the physical gifts or pedigree of Barnes. Therefore, season No. 2 should be a transition season to season three where we could all be seeing the Warriors led to the NBA Finals by their own trio of superstar in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes.

May 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors small forward Harrison Barnes (40) celebrates after a basket against the San Antonio Spurs during the first quarter of game three of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

After the Golden State Warriors mustered a comeback win Sunday most of the talk was about Harrison Barnes for breakout game, and Andrew Bogut for his continued dominance in the paint.

So, one has to wonder, which player is more important to the success of the Warriors going forward, both the short-term and long-term. Either way, this is not a simple question.

For the short-term, both have strengths which cannot be replicated by others on the roster. Long-term, there are varying issues that will shape the Warriors for seasons to come. However, they are for the most part undetermined. (health, contracts and other personnel development play heavily into this outlook)  So, for the purpose of this discussion, let’s stay a bit more short sighted and focus on the task at hand–the current playoff run.

There is no question that when Bogut is healthy, he is one of the leading defensive forces in the game. Conversely, when Barnes has it going, he is the most well-rounded overall player on the roster (yeah, I said it).  In terms of player efficiency, Bogut ranks ahead of Barnes, which is likely due to the fact that he is grabbing every rebound in limited minutes. But on the same note, Barnes ranks ahead of Klay Thompson thanks to a fewer amount turnovers despite the increased level of responsibility

May 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12) defends San Antonio Spurs power forward Tim Duncan (21) during the fourth quarter of game three of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

So, if Bogut plays fewer minutes, and is more efficient, his minutes have more value than Barnes. However, what about those minutes that Bogut is not on the floor. This is where the conversation gets interesting.

The Barnes and Bogut combination have averaged about 25 minutes a game, which is about  86 percent of Bogut’s total time on the floor.  That combination is third in overall plus-minus of all the possible two-player combinations for the  Warriors.

But, who is a party to three of the top 5 combinations? Barnes (first, third and fifth). Bogut obviously ranked high as well, finishing third and fifth. Reflecting on the statistics, it is interesting that Barnes and not Thompson is in the first group despite the fact that Thompson is paired up with scoring, making it the unequivocal higher-scoring duo. But Barnes is more versatile than Thompson, and that is why he is having what appears to be more success.

Barnes, although a rookie, is getting all the opportunities he wants in this postseason, as evident in the 26 shot attempts in Game 4. Moreover, his time on the floor is typically with a vast array of other Warriors, such as Draymond Green and Festus Ezeli, who don’t demand the ball, whereas Bogut is on the floor with the starters.

It is crucial for Barnes to keep the ship afloat because he is out there longer, and he has not disappointed. His ability to guard every position except the center position is a huge benefit to the Warriors, and it also allows him to stay on the floor longer.

In addition, his offensive game, I would argue, is the most varied on the team. When Barnes is punishing smaller defenders down low, that typically bodes the entire Warriors offense well. He can create space and shoot over the top of smaller defenders, or penetrate past bigger guys, creating opportunities for shooters as the San Antonio Spurs collapse.

Bogut,on the other hand, is a two trick pony, dominating the lane by blocking shots and rebounding. He has, however, mastered the two tricks, so it’s not like it is a bad thing. Any points you get from are gravy, but that is not why he is in there. He is there to change shots, limit the Spurs to one possession and get additional ones for the Warriors’ offense.

May 2, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors small forward Harrison Barnes (40) dunks against the Denver Nuggets during the first quarter of game six of the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Nuggets 92-88. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Of the remaining teams, he is the league leader in the rebounding department even despite playing the fewer minutes.  But can a portion of what he does be replicated? Perhaps. Ezeli has shown some ability to cause havoc and gain extra possessions for Golden State. And, in more recent instances, even Andris Biedrins has given (brief) minutes of providing some energy on the boards. Obviously, neither are the dominating presence of Bogut, and neither has the overall feels of the Aussie; but, it could be argued that if Bogut were to miss significant time due to injury or foul trouble, all may not be lost due to the similar skill set of Ezeli and Biedrins.

Regardless, the Warriors need both Barnes and Bogut to continue to produce to extend the team’s unbelievable run. But it becomes a choice of preference in terms of who is more important.  Jack of all trades or master of two. In terms of recent successes, you have to look no further than the most recent NBA champs for which model may work better.  A “positionless” lineup seems to create the most problems in terms of matching up.  Bogut’s contributions are significant nonetheless, but, due to less minutes, may not have as much overall impact on the outcome of the game as much as Barne’s minutes do.

So, for what is worth, in my opinion, Barnes is the key going forward for Warriors’ success due to overall swiss army knife-ness of his game.