The NBA world got its blockbuster news on day two of NBA Free Agency. After weeks (months, years?) of speculation, Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers finally appear headed for a breakup after the All-NBA point guard requested a trade on Saturday morning.
The Golden State Warriors have faced Lillard multiple times in the playoffs across the dynasty era, and there is plenty of mutual respect between Lillard and the Warriors’ stars. If he heads East, the chance of another playoff matchup reduces significantly.
What if it was reduced to zero? Is there a way the Warriors could step into the Damian Lillard sweepstakes and trade for the Portland star?
Can the Warriors bring Damian Lillard home?
Lillard grew up in the Bay Area, born and raised in Oakland, California. He wears the number “0” to signify that face (Oakland to Ogden to Oregon) and maintains a strong connection to the community of Oakland. There are thousands of Dame fans in Oakland that would love to see him return home.
The Warriors already added one former point-guard rival this summer in Chris Paul; could they move him already to add a different one? We’ve already discussed that Paul’s high salary makes him a natural option to trade for a star, and Lillard would be one of the brightest.
How would such a deal look? Let’s break down the math and rule limitations on a deal, how the two teams could thread the needle, and evaluate the value for both sides.
Laying out a Damian Lillard trade
The math on a trade for Damian Lillard gets tricky very quickly. Because the Warriors are over the first apron (they’re over the second, but for this league year that doesn’t matter here) they need to get within ten percent of Damian Lillard’s $45.6 million contract. Without trading a member of their current starting lineup — Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney — there is only one real configuration that works.
Keep in mind, once the trade with the Washington Wizards is completed to bring Chris Paul to Golden State, Paul cannot be aggregated in a deal for 2 months. It’s unlikely all parties would want to hang in limbo for that long. To make this deal, therefore, the Warriors have a small window to combine it with the Wizards deal before that goes through.
Assuming everything about that deal stays the same (and it doesn’t have to; there are alternate constructions sending Jusuf Nurkic to the Wizards for extra draft compensation), the Warriors can reroute Paul straight from Washington to Portland. Removing Washington for simplicity’s sake, here is what would be moving between Portland and Golden State:
There is no other viable way for the Warriors to stack salaries to get to Lillard’s number, but the pieces involved make sense for the Blazers either way. Gary Payton II returns, perhaps unwillingly given his issues with their medical staff, but he’s an easy candidate to be flipped to a contender now or by the trade deadline. Paul is actually an intriguing addition not simply as an expiring contract but as a veteran mentor to Scoot Henderson.
Jonathan Kuminga is the real prize for Portland here. A team that has seemed wholly incapable of drafting and developing forwards gets a high-upside one in Kuminga, who adds a lot of athleticism and would make for a fascinating pairing with Jerami Grant for as long as Grant is on the team.
This deal is worse than what the Brooklyn Nets could offer if they pushed most of their chips in, but it probably beats a deal by the Miami Heat or LA Clippers. Let’s assume for the moment that Portland gives this the thumbs up; would the Warriors make this deal?
Would the Warriors accept this deal?
The offensive powerhouse that the Warriors would put together in San Francisco would have the potential to be one of the best of all time. Among all players in NBA history (minimum 2,000 attempts) Stephen Curry ranks first at 3.8 3-pointers per game. Klay Thompson ranks fourth. Third on that list? Damian Lillard.
The strain on defenses trying to stop the off-ball movement of Steph, Klay and Dame would be immeasurable. Successfully snuff out the off-ball action, and either Steph or Dame can then attack the defense off the dribble, with a stepback or blow-by equally on the cards. Oh, and the other will still be racing around off the ball.
Defensively there are certainly big question marks, the Warriors will be small and Lillard doesn’t have the defensive IQ of someone like Paul. It’s a hurdle to be overcome, but not more so than with Jordan Poole; Lillard is likely a better defender than Poole was last season. The offense would need to score a lot to strengthen that weakness, but that’s not out of the question.
What about the value? Losing Kuminga and Payton II hurts, and the Warriors certainly need particularly the latter more than ever. They would be trading every available first, including most or all of the remaining equity on their 2030 pick. That’s a lot to give up, and will hamper their future.
Their present, however? It would be incredible to watch. Lillard may have preferred Miami, but there is every reason to think he would also appreciate playing near home in The Bay. The Warriors are trying to win right now, and trading for Lillard boosts that possibility in a spectacular way.
Grade: A