May 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12) reacts after a play against the San Antonio Spurs during the third quarter of game three of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Spurs defeated the Warriors 102-92. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Golden State Warriors: What to Expect from a Healthy Andrew Bogut?

May 10, 2013; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12) reacts after a play against the San Antonio Spurs during the third quarter of game three of the second round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Spurs defeated the Warriors 102-92. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

What do porcelain and Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut have in common? Don’t think too hard. It’s that their both incredibly fragile and break way too easily. Much like porcelain when Bogut hits the floor hard he usually breaks. Bogut has missed more than 104 games in the past two seasons and almost a third of all his games in his eight year career.

But in the upcoming season the Warriors are expecting a fully healthy Andrew Bogut. Per the Sporting News:

 “I think the initial thought is he is healthy, and play him as much as you want. If something obviously were to develop, something unforeseen, you have to react to it. At this point, you treat him like he is 100 percent healthy, that is what he is saying, that is what the medical staff is saying, so, you don’t treat him any other way.”

But what can we realistically expect from Andrew Bogut. Bogut played only 32 games last season (not including the postseason) and in those 32 games Bogut averaged 24.6 minutes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, and 5.8 points per game.

In the upcoming season, expect a little more production from Bogut. Realistically, Bogut will not play all 82 games. I would be pleasantly surprised if he played more than 60. Hypothetically if Bogut plays only 55 games next season here is what his projected statline would look like.

Projected statline (per game): 27 minutes, 49% shooting from field, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 3 fouls, and 8 points

Due to Bogut’s health limitations as well as the surplus of the Warriors talent that can play the two, three or four (Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Andre IgIuodala) Bogut will likely play less than 30 minutes per game. Last season Bogut played just more than 24 minutes and once he returned to the team late in the season Bogut’s minutes were handled carefully. Because I expect him to come back from injury at one point or another during the season as well as the Warriors offensive talent, expect Bogut to shoot a quality percentage, but to average less than ten points per game.

If Bogut did average ten point and almost ten rebounds per game then the Warriors frontcourt will be one of the league’s best due to the consistent double-double prescene of David Lee and possibly Bogut. Another reason to expect less from Bogut is that the Warriors will likely resort more to small-ball where Lee plays the five moving Bogut to the bench.

Quite frankly for Warriors fans, the best possible scenario for Bogut would be for him to play all 82 games, a feat that he accomplished only once back in his rookie campaign. If Bogut played all 82 games and averaged only 5 points and 6 boards per game in only 20 minutes but was in turn able to give maximum production come postseason time then Warriors fans and coach Mark Jackson would be more than happy.

Chances are though, that that is not the case and Bogut continues to be his porcelain self next season.

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Tags: 2012-13 Preview Andrew Bogut Golden State Warriors

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