With the Golden State Warriors sitting atop the Western Conference at 43-9, most have opted to ignore the not so small issue of Draymond Green‘s impending free agency, instead choosing to focus on the superstardom of Stephen Curry or their NBA title chances.
But in light of Chandler Parsons‘ acrimonious departure from the Houston Rockets last season, the question that will define the Warriors’ offseason is this: How much is Draymond Green worth?
Obviously, this isn’t the easiest of questions to answer.
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What Green may be worth to the Warriors is an entirely different number than what he may be worth to another team, such as, say, the Brooklyn Nets. When evaluating Green, the Warriors have to not only consider his production on offense and defense but also his fit on the team and if such a large salary spike (some experts predict Green will receive a max contract offer sheet) would be justified for a player who ultimately would be at best, the third option on offense. And because Green will be a restricted free agent, Golden State may be forced to match an offer sheet from another team that will be a few million dollars higher than they anticipate on shelling out, just to keep him in the fold.
Because it isn’t often that second round draft picks go from sporadically playing for two seasons to being in the discussion for max contracts, there isn’t much precedent to compare Green to. But, there are certainly some parallels between Green’s upcoming free agency situation and Parsons’ from last season.
Like Green, Parsons was a four-year player in college who was labelled as a “tweener” in draft evaluations. Tweeners are players described as “position-less”. Scouts usually consider them too small to play the power forward position but neither quick enough nor skilled enough to play on the perimeter. As a result, most of these players are usually overlooked in the draft because of the uncertainty surrounding their NBA potential. But after going in the second round, Parsons was able to thrive in Houston as an oversized small forward because of his ability to get to and finish at the rim and his superb movement off the ball.
Over the course of his three seasons in Houston, Parsons also improved upon his ability to create his own shot and became an above-average shooter from behind the arc after hitting only 33.7% of his threes in college. In his time on the Rockets, Parsons developed a set of skills that could help transform any NBA offense. He became a solid three-point shooter, a good finisher at the rim and almost mastered the art of the off-ball cut. As a result, the Dallas Mavericks poached him away with a three-year contract that pays him about $15.3 million per season, despite his known defensive deficiencies.
But while Parsons’ game is more universal (in the sense that he’s a good fit on any NBA team), Green’s success this season appears to be more of a result of the roster around him than his individual development. With defenses worrying about Curry and Klay Thompson on every possession, it isn’t all that difficult for Green to find open spots on the floor and simply wait until someone finds him spotting up. And if Green were an even an average three-point shooter, that wouldn’t be a problem. But despite the notion that he has improved his shooting, he is only shooting 33.5% from behind the arc this season (the league average is 35%) and four of the nine shots he averages per game come from three-point range, indicating a much less versatile player than the public perceives him as.
In addition to his poor shooting, Green also has a very minimal set of perimeter skills, making it difficult for him to make dribble drives to the rim and effectively limits his role to that of a floor spacer. Green does manage to average 3.6 assists, but his assists are much different from a Chandler Parsons assist. When Green gets the ball, he often has time to survey the floor and find the open man because the defense is usually focused on Curry and Thompson. He’s good at finding his teammates when given a little bit of time and space, but he has also proven to be ineffective when the defense forces him to be a playmaker. This year, Green has 49 turnovers attributed to bad passes, which is 19 more than Parsons despite Green having a lower usage rate and much more offensive talent surrounding him than does Parsons.
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But while he does still have clear deficiencies, Green is very good at some of the undervalued aspects of the game, which is what makes him such a great fit for the Warriors. At only 6’7”, Green still manages to pull down 8.3 rebounds per game and is one of the better individual defensive players in the league (his 95.5 defensive rating is sixth overall). Regardless of where he goes, Green is the type of player that will be able to average around 12 points and eight rebounds. But on the Warriors, his contributions are infinitely more impactful because it makes their team that much deeper.
Based on his play this season, it’s pretty clear that Draymond Green isn’t a max contact player but will still be one of the upper-tier free agents this offseason. In a perfect world, Green is worth about $8 million per season. But with the chess match that is restricted free agency and the increasing salary cap, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Green sign a contract that pays him between $12-$14 million per year over four seasons.
But, the business side of the NBA makes most moves almost entirely unpredictable. And that’s the fun.