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Warriors Analysis: Harrison Barnes And The Max Contract

By Angelo Mendoza

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Harrison Barnes of the Golden State Warriors has demonstrated a steady increase in production and efficiency over the past three seasons he’s spent in the NBA, but it’s the stir he caused a couple weeks ago that’s been making headlines after he reportedly turned down Golden State’s initial offer of a four-year, $64 million contract extension.

The main question in everyone’s mind following the debacle: For a player who’s not widely considered to be among the top-3 players on his team, why in the world is he asking to be paid like he is?

From Barnes’ point of view, the obvious reasoning behind him rejecting a deal that roughly would have paid him $16 million per year is the fact that the small forward position in the NBA is rather thin, and teams would likely pay the max to see a 6-foot-8 wingman like Barnes suiting up for them.

We can also look at it from the brilliant perspective of Bay Area News Group sports columnist Marcus Thompson, who pointed out that the team’s well known desire to acquire Kevin Durant from the Oklahoma City Thunder could be possible leverage for a deal that would make Barnes the highest paid player on the Warriors come next season.

Since the Barnes extension rejection, analysts like Grantland’s Zach Lowe have picked apart Barnes’ game piece by piece, pinpointing a plethora of reasons why betting on Barnes to have a breakout year comparable to that of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or Draymond Green is riskier than juggling three clubs whilst balancing atop a triple-decker indo board on top of an elevated stage. In San Francisco.

Despite Barnes not by any means being a creator offensively, his abilities to knock down open threes from the corner and defend multiple positions are exactly what makes him such a hot commodity come free agency — that, and the overwhelming pool of untapped potential that has been supposedly oozing out of him ever since his days of being a high school phenom (and lest we forget about all that athleticism).

That said, really the only high-probability scenario in which Barnes earns a true max deal — mini, as it may be — is if he chooses to forgo extension talks and test the waters in restricted free agency. The Warriors would then have the option to match any offer Barnes would receive from other teams, and there’s no way the team loses Barnes for nothing if faced with the need to match a max offer.

The only other scenario in which Barnes actually earns a max deal with the Warriors is if, God-forbid, Thompson or Green goes down, and Barnes establishes himself as a reliable second- or third-option. Anything can happen, but you’re better off believing the Oakland Raiders can make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

Listing the multiple reasons why Golden State would be in a bad way should they choose to give Barnes anything close to a max deal prior to restricted free agency:

First of all, as aforementioned, he’s not one of the Warriors’ top-3 players on the roster, let alone the fourth-best player on the team if you consider Andre Iguodala and what he brings to the table as their sixth man. Though Barnes has certainly showed improvement over the past three seasons, how much of that is an indirect result of playing next to Curry and Thompson is immeasurable.

Secondly, the roster simply doesn’t have the space to accommodate another star should that be the path Barnes wishes to take. I don’t care if Steve Kerr is hopped up on pain medication to ease the tension in his back: it’s impossible to imagine Barnes getting just as many plays called for him while on the floor with either one of the Splash Brothers, so why should the team pay him as if that’s a possibility?

And thirdly, signing Barnes to a max deal or something near a max deal would effectively make him the highest paid player on the team until Curry signs his extension next season. Though incredibly unlikely, the possible disconnect such a move could cause in the locker room is one that, at the very least, urges a slight bit of caution.

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However, the basketball world is certainly aware of Golden State’s philosophies on growing organically and establishing continuity, so it’s in the franchise’s best interest they do whatever they can to secure Barnes long term. If that means waiting to see what he’s worth over the season and signing him to an extension as a restricted free agent, then so be it. Chances are waiting out the season until Barnes is a RFA will only affirm that Barnes is not worth anything near max money on this specific team.

But if Bob Myers can work his magic before the end of this month and secure an extension south of the predicted $80 million Barnes could garner as a restricted free agent, then the pill of just waiting and hoping Barnes develops into a deserving successor to Iguodala becomes that much more easy to swallow. The team’s track record has proven that while these Warriors extension talks do take a bit more time than expected, the front office normally does end up successfully signing their top free agents to team-friendly extensions. History is on their side.

For the record, Barnes has said he’s “optimistic” that a deal with the Warriors gets done prior to the Oct. 31 deadline, adding that Oakland is his home. It’d also be nice for Barnes to leave some money on the table for Festus Ezeli, who is also up for an extension this year.

But if Barnes would rather have financial security over long-term stability with a winning culture and the prospect of contending for a title for years to come, then that’s fine too.

Next: What is Ezeli's Ceiling?

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