Let’s face it: this is a very exciting time to be a Golden State Warriors fan.
The tip off of the NBA season can’t come soon enough. However, it is also intriguing to ponder about the future of this organization and imagine where they will be three years from now.
Entering the 2017-2018 season, all current contracts will have expired (with the exception of Nemanja Nedovic expired, if they pick up his team option). A lot of hard decisions will have been made following the 2016-2017 season, as the $10M+/yr contracts of Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala, and Stephen Curry will be up. Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli will also have played out their respective qualifying offers granted their team options are picked up after the 2015-2016 season.
Sir Charles In Charge
The top priority will undoubtedly be signing their franchise player in Curry to a new long-term contract. At age 29 in 2017, Curry will be at the apex of his prime, a top-5 NBA player, and able to demand the max contract. Under the CBA, the Warriors will be able to offer more money than any other team, which is enticing, but at that point in his career, Curry will be more concerned about championships than money. Two assumptions are worth making: Curry will forever be tempted to return home to play for the Charlotte Hornets and Klay Thompson will be a Warrior in 2017. Thompson has made it very clear that he wants to stay in the bay and I imagine he’ll be in the second of his four-year max contract going into 2017-2018. As great as are the Splash Brothers are, I wouldn’t be shocked if Curry left to join another star-studded team and play on an immediate championship contender.
If Thompson and Curry are locked up, the Warriors will have a little less financial flexibility. Draymond Green will presumably be on his third year of a 4-year/$24M contract. The front office probably won’t be interested in offering the oft-injured, 33-year old Bogut anything beyond a 2-year/$8M offer. Iguodala, at 33, will be in a similar situation to Bogut. As a long, explosive athlete, it’s tough to project how his game and body will age. However it doesn’t bode well for Iguodala that he mostly contributes as a defensive stopper and is not a great spot-up shooter. I’d be surprised if the front office offered anything beyond three years and $15M.
“It’s not hard to imagine that the Warriors will make it their top priority to keep the core of Curry, Thompson, Green, and Ezeli together for the next 3-5 years.”
The 2016-17 season will be a make or break season for the enigmatic Harrison Barnes. If he has a season with a stat line around 15 points, seven rebounds, and three assists per game, the Warriors may be interested in keeping him around and re-signing him. If he repeats his underwhelming performance from last year, I’d expect the Warriors to ship him off for a second round draft pick.
David Lee’s future stock will also be greatly affected by his last two years on his current gaudy contract. There’s no doubt he will earn more than his current $15M/year, but we’ll have to see how reasonable his salary expectations are after the 2015-16 season are. If Curry determines he wants to stick around long-term, expect him to convince Lee to do the same.
It’s not hard to imagine that the Warriors will make it their top priority to keep the core of Curry, Thompson, Green, and Ezeli together for the next 3-5 years. On the other hand, it is a little tougher to project the organization’s thoughts on signing aging but proven talent such as Iguodala, Lee, and Bogut. I anticipate management will be able to see eye-to-eye and agree on a reasonable deal with one of these players, but it’s hard to say exactly who. Recent signees such as Brandon Rush and Livingston control their own future and will remain as Warriors by proving they can contribute and stay healthy.
With some adept drafting, smart roster management, and good health, the Golden State Warriors have a future as bright as any organization in the NBA.