The Golden State Warriors and their Turnover Problem
By Greg Chin
When the Golden State Warriors finished 13th in offensive efficiency last season, many Warriors’ fans were in dismay.
While fans of other teams may settle for 13th in offensive efficiency, the Warriors see that as a disappointment. Why?
Because there was so much room for improvement. The Warriors finished 22nd in turnovers per game, turning the ball over 15.2 times per game. Only two other playoff teams were sloppier with the ball: the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets.
If you look closer, you’ll notice a similarity between all three teams, especially in the way they run their offense. The Warriors were notorious under former head coach Mark Jackson for running an isolation-heavy offense, while the Thunder and Rockets focus most of their play through their star players (Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the Thunder, James Harden and Dwight Howard for the Rockets).
According to a study conducted by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, the Warriors passed the ball the least among all teams in the league last season. They were also ranked 22nd in “run score” — where off-the-ball player movement is measured when the ball is a team’s possession — further proof that despite having one of the best shooting backcourts in the league, the Warriors ran one of the most stagnant offenses in the league.
But how does this factor into the turnovers?
With the knowledge that the Warriors have one of the most stagnant offenses, it puts lead ballhandler Stephen Curry’s 3.8 turnovers per game into perspective. A whopping 65.7 percent (194 in total) of his turnovers were from “bad passes”. It’s easier for opposing defenses to clog up passing lanes when there isn’t much movement from their assignments.
This was even more apparent during the first round playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers. Whenever Curry had the ball, the Clippers forced a double team on Curry. He had to pass the ball into a less threatening area, or split the double team. He was less effective in the series, and Jackson’s reluctance to play a more free-flowing offense was the catalyst for the Warriors’ first round exit.
Of course, the Warriors’ stagnant offense isn’t the only reason behind the turnovers. The Warriors have a penchant for the flashier pass, Curry and Andre Iguodala in particular. There are times where they manage to pull off some spectacular passes, like this:
But more often than not, it ended up in a turnover. Curry is a frequent offender; especially with his hook pass that he uses when passing to his roll man when in the pick-and-roll.
I’m not advocating for the team to stop the flashy passes; it’s part of their identity as a young, exciting team. But what’s important is that the players can discern when it’s appropriate for these types of passes. If it’s a clutch situation, it should always be safety over showmanship.
But, it’s not all doom and gloom with the Warriors.
Despite having their turnover issues, the Warriors are ranked ninth league-wide in assist to turnover ratio (17.5). The Warriors, when they want to, have shown that they can be a pass-heavy team. Having two dangerous shooters in Curry and Klay Thompson on the floor is a defensive nightmare for many teams. Their shooting ability forces the defenses to bend and keep track of their whereabouts at all times, which creates spacing opportunities for others.
A much harped-on point during the offseason is new head coach Steve Kerr’s plans for the Warriors’ offense. He’s already shared that the offense will feature many key Triangle offense elements, while incorporating the deadly pick-and-roll combination of Curry and Andrew Bogut, along with the San Antonio Spurs’ motion offense.
If that’s all gibberish to you, I’ll simplify it: the Warriors are going to be running, A LOT.
Part of why I’m optimistic about the Warriors’ chances next season (despite a lack of a big offseason addition) is the hire of coach Kerr and his plans for the offense. On paper, the Warriors have one of the most offensively-talented starting lineups in the league. With Kerr’s help, we might just see that translate onto the court.