Stephen Curry: Dark Horse MVP Candidate

It’s a good time to be a Golden State Warriors’ fan.

The team is doing well, the fans and the front office have championship aspirations for the team, making the playoffs is a must, the coaching staff is one of the best in the league, there’s a new stadium planned for the future, and the Warriors might have an MVP candidate.

“Wait, what was that last one?”

No, it’s not a typo. The Warriors have a player who could end up winning the 2014-15 NBA Most Valuable Player award. It’s not “homer bias” and it’s not a stretch to think that Stephen Curry could win the prestigious prize — even the Las Vegas betting site Bovada has Curry as 28-1 odds to become MVP (ninth-best odds to win).

It’s been widely accepted that the MVP for the past few years has been a two-horse race, usually involving LeBron James and somebody else (Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, recently). But this season, the competition looks to be more open.

James has won the award four times in the past six seasons, but his chances at winning the title this season could take a hit. Despite creating a superteam of his own in Cleveland, the Cavaliers will need time to gel before they are able to perform at their full potential. The early teething problems that almost all “overnight- built” teams suffer could cost James his shot at MVP. For reference, in his first season at the Miami Heat, his team started 9-8.

Meanwhile, Durant, as many will know, has suffered a Jones’ fracture in his right foot. The Oklahoma City Thunder forward could miss at least six weeks. For those of you counting, that’s 24 games minimum. Even if he comes out red-hot and doesn’t miss any other games, the last time a player won MVP playing less than 58 regular season games was Karl Malone in the lockout 50-game 1998-99 season. It’s a safe bet that Durant isn’t going to win it this year.

So, with the two giants in less than ideal situations to contend for MVP, why not Stephen Curry?

Many have included Curry’s status as a defensive sieve as an argument why he shouldn’t be considered. To those few, I’d like to point out two-time MVP winner Steve Nash. Nash won the MVP in back-to-back seasons in 2004 to 2006. His reputation as a minus-defender is well-known and he is a prime example that defense doesn’t matter as much when considering MVP winners.

Using Nash and Derrick Rose as examples (the last two point guards to win MVP), we can get a better gauge of what Curry needs to do to be considered. Here are their stats during their MVP seasons:

Last season, Curry scored 24 points per game with 47/42/88 shooting splits and averaged 8.5 assists per game. His statline from last season is already comparable to Rose’s from the 2010-11 season, but lacks the assists when compared against Nash’s MVP seasons. Curry should continue to improve as a point guard, and his assist numbers will increase under head coach Steve Kerr’s motion offense, which focuses on getting players open shots.

Statistically, Curry can replicate the numbers put up by the former-MVP point guards.

However, Nash and Rose hold the edge in team performances over Curry. Both their teams were first in their respective divisions, and the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns and 2010-11 Chicago Bulls owned the best record in the league. Also, all three teams had postseason success, making it to their respective Conference Finals in those years.

If Curry is to emerge as a real contender for MVP, the Warriors will need to present themselves as a real challenger for the title. They will have to finish top three in the Western Conference (Michael Jordan’s 1987-88 Chicago Bulls were the last lowest-ranked team to have an MVP winner) for Curry to even be in the conversation for MVP.

It’s not impossible, but it won’t be easy either. That said, Curry is the best chance Golden State has had at MVP since the giddy heights of Baron Davis.