After months of waiting and two weeks of preseason basketball, the regular season is almost upon us.
The Golden State Warriors will play their first game of the 2014-15 season against the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. The Warriors will take their first steps in what they hope will be a journey that takes them to the NBA Finals.
No one will have more expectations placed on them than new head coach Steve Kerr. Kerr was brought in to replace Mark Jackson, who has led the Warriors to two postseason appearances the last two seasons. You can be sure that parallels will be drawn between Kerr and Jackson throughout the regular season.
The Warriors, despite Jackson’s stagnant offensive schemes, were a force to be reckoned with last season. They got off to a 8-3 start which they used as a springboard to finish with a 51-31 record.
What will this season’s Warriors’ winning percentage be after the first ten games?
In the first ten games, the Warriors will play the Los Angeles Lakers twice and the following teams once: Sacramento Kings, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Brooklyn Nets and the Charlotte Hornets.
I don’t know about you, but that’s a very daunting opening. The Warriors will play seven games against playoff contenders, five of which are against contenders in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. Four of those teams finished higher than the Warriors last season. Yikes.
On the bright side, the Warriors will play five home games (Lakers, Clippers, Spurs, Nets, Hornets) in the first ten before playing seven away games in the subsequent ten.
It’s safe to say that the team will be well-tested by mid-November. Having such a difficult schedule early can be a positive too: teams tend to struggle early on in the season, as they get into the groove of playing competitive basketball. They’ll be able to see where they stack up against the top teams in the West (Spurs, Clippers) and the teams that were close to their talent bracket last season (Blazers, Rockets, Suns).
I’m very optimistic about the Warriors’ chances next season – I think they can finish top of the West if the team can adapt to Kerr’s system quickly. However, I recognize that they might struggle in the first month of the season.
My prediction for the first ten games: 6-4. The team should get wins over the Lakers, Kings, Nets and Hornets.
But is it important that the Warriors get off to a hot start?
Personally, I don’t think the results are as important as the performances of the team. Kerr is still a rookie when it comes to the coaching scene, and he is attempting to implement a lot of changes to the Warriors’ offensive playbook. A lot of questions still need to be answered:
- Is the team ready to run Kerr’s offense?
- What is the rotation going to be? Does Harrison Barnes or Andre Iguodala start?
- Can Iguodala come off the bench as a point forward?
- What is the team’s defensive identity?
- Can Klay Thompson step up as a playmaker?
Despite having a month of training camp and eight preseason games with the current roster, the Warriors have not been “field-tested” in competitive games. It’s not inconceivable that the team struggles through the first 10 games as Kerr and Co. get their feet wet. Even if the team goes .500 in the first 10 games, the focus shouldn’t be on whether the front office made a mistake in hiring Kerr, but rather on how the team has looked in these games.
If despite the losses, the team’s performance has been good and Kerr hasn’t looked out of his depth as a coach, the fanbase should focus on those positives rather than the record. The Warriors have not made a major retooling of the roster, but the entire coaching roster is different for the first time since 2011.
They will need time to gel, which is why it’s important as fans to not push the big red “PANIC” button after the first ten games. The Warriors and Kerr are in this for the long haul; the regular season is a marathon and not a sprint. They’ll have 72 more regular season games to redeem themselves.