Have we gotten over the firing of Mark Jackson yet?
Yes, the man took a perennial bottom-feeder and turned it into a legitimate playoff team. Yes, he took the Warriors to back-to-back playoff appearances and led them to a 50-win season for the first time in two decades. And yes, he oversaw the transformation of the culture in Golden State, establishing higher expectations and a national spotlight.
That last point is probably what led to his firing; Jackson’s final season with the Warriors was volatile to say the least, as he canned two assistant coaches, dealt with questions about “dysfunction” in the locker room, and was portrayed as having an egocentric attitude. Ultimately, I think Jackson knew he was coaching his final games with the Warriors during that first round playoff series against the Clippers, barring a trip to the NBA Finals.
Such are expectations in the NBA Western Conference these days. In the past two years, four coaches — Jackson, Vinny Del Negro, Lionel Hollins, and George Karl — have been fired despite 50-win seasons. Hollins took the Grizzlies to the Western Conference Finals in 2013, and Karl won Coach of the Years honors that same year.
It is no coincidence that all four coaches were mired in the juggernaut that is the Western Conference, filled from top to bottom with strong, loaded teams. The Warriors won 51 games last season and only finished sixth in the West. Phoenix won 48 games and missed the playoffs entirely. Compare that to the East, when a 38-win Hawks team somehow made the postseason.
The unequal balance will likely continue this season. The Spurs and Clippers aren’t going anywhere. The Thunder might start slow with Kevin Durant out, but they will still be in the mix. The middle-tier teams — Rockets, Trail Blazers, Grizzlies, and Mavericks — haven’t gotten any worse (although Houston did somewhat self-implode this offseason by letting Chandler Parsons go, giving away Jeremy Lin, and failing to sign Chris Bosh). Then you have the Suns, who just missed the playoffs by a game last season and are probably the hungriest of all teams in the West. Put the Warriors in that mix, and there are once again nine playoff-worthy teams battling for eight spots.
The question, though, is where the Warriors stand amongst the trees. Early power rankings suggest that Golden State is the fourth or fifth best team in the West, but whether it comes to fruition is impossible to predict right now. There are too many uncertainties surrounding the Warriors, and most of that stems from how Steve Kerr will perform.
Expectations are high enough with Kerr taking over a 51-win team, but add in Kerr’s penchant for installing a new offensive scheme (incorporating parts of the Triangle Offense) and making changes to the starting lineup and there’s no telling what may transpire. There could be issues right out of the gate, which could lead to disaster because of the Warriors’ tough schedule (seven of their first 10 games are against playoff contenders).
But they could also come out firing on all cylinders. Stephen Curry could absolutely explode with Kerr’s schemes and better spacing on the floor. Klay Thompson could exceed expectations, put up All-Star numbers and justify the Warriors’ keeping him over Kevin Love. Harrison Barnes could rekindle the prowess that he had during his rookie season. Andre Igoudala could slide seamlessly into a bench role and thrive as a point-forward. Andrew Bogut, with more involvement in the offense, could become a threat on both ends of the court. David Lee could find his mid-range jumper again and be a semi stretch-4 for Kerr. Draymond Green could be the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year. The Warriors’ revamped bench of Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush, and Leandro Barbosa could pay immediate dividends. Festus Ezeli could become a stable backup center, and hey, maybe Nemanja Nedovic and Ognjen Kuzmic could actually be productive NBA players for the first time in their careers.
Yeah, but that’s if everything goes right. If all the above happens, the Warriors will finish at the top of the West and be strong contenders for a championship. But if only most, some or (God forbid) none of the above happens, the Warriors will either be mired in the middle of the pack like they were last season, or could be the Suns of 2014-2015 and miss the playoffs despite a decent season.
Other than the obvious factor of health, it all comes down to how the players react to Kerr, and whether the changes that Kerr makes will improve the team. He has all the right tools: a talented team on the up-and-up, elite shooters that fit his offensive system, and a terrific coaching staff to guide him though his rookie season. But again, his lack of coaching experience will be tested early with the tough opponents the Warriors will face right away.
Can he do it? Can Kerr take what Mark Jackson started to the next level? We’ll find out starting Wednesday, folks. Can’t wait.