Breaking Down Klay Thompson’s Improvement

One of the biggest storylines during the offseason was Klay Thompson’s role in the Kevin Love trade rumors.

There were strong indications that the Minnesota Timberwolves wanted Thompson as part of the trade package for Love. The Warriors offered different packages, but ultimately the Timberwolves decided to trade Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Fast forward a few weeks, and the Warriors had another big decision on their hands. Thompson’s rookie-scale contract was in its final year, and the Warriors had until the October 31 to decide on an extension. Rumors were abound that Klay and his agent were seeking a max contract offer, and it divided fans and analysts alike on whether he was worth that money. The Warriors ended up inking Klay to a 4 year, $70 million contract extension.

All eyes were on Klay for the first few games of the season as he exploded out of the gates, providing very early indicators that the Warriors were correct to extend his contract. However, as the season progressed, the attention shifted to the Warriors as a whole, and their unbelievable 10-game winning streak.

Let’s shift the focus back on Klay, and see whether the fourth-year guard has made improvements on his game.

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One of the biggest early criticisms of Klay Thompson’s offensive game was that there was no variety in his offense. He couldn’t drive or score at the rim, and would only settle for 3-point attempts. Last season, 22.1 percent of his field goal attempts were less than 10 feet away from the basket. He shot 53.1 percent on those attempts.

This season, he’s improved his shot selection and 32 percent of his field goal attempts have come in that same zone. In fact, he’s averaging more shots in the “less than 10 feet” zone than pull-ups this season (as per NBA.com). The best part is that he’s still shooting at a 53 percent clip – increased usage, but no decrease in accuracy.

He is also becoming more confident at creating shots off the dribble. Last season, only 2.8 percent of his shot attempts came after seven or more dribbles, and he shot 48.6 percent. This season, five percent of his shot attempts have come after seven or more dribbles, and his effective field goal percentage (which values three-point field goals more) is at 53.8 percent. He’s also showing an increase in frequency for shots after one or more dribbles, and a decrease in catch and shoot instances.

This is all statistical evidence to support the eye test observation of “Klay is being more aggressive and looks more comfortable dribbling the ball”. Of course, he is averaging more turnovers as a result of his increased usage rate (up by 4.2 percent), but it is merely a small 0.4 turnovers per game increase. The “aggression” is also supported by the fact that he is averaging 4.1 free throw attempts per game – an increase from the 2.3 he averaged last season. In fact, he is nearing the halfway mark of his 79 shooting fouls drawn last season (31 this season), despite only playing a fifth of the games.

Plus, he’s giving us thunderous dunks like this:

Often, you’ll hear a player’s attention on defense wane after an increased role on the offense. It doesn’t come as a surprise, as players will sometimes take defense as a resting period after running the offense.

Well, applying that logic to our situation with Klay, it would almost be forgivable if his defense slipped as a result of his offense. However, that hasn’t been the case.

According to NBA.com, Klay’s assignments on the defensive end have shot 9.4 percent worse when being guarded by Klay than their regular season average. This is an improvement from the -3.2 percent from last season. The biggest jump has been in the “2 pointers” category, where opponents shoot a whopping 11.8 percent worse than their regular season average.

It’s encouraging to see that he hasn’t slacked off on the defensive end despite the increased role that he’s taking up on the offensive end. It could be a result of coach Steve Kerr staggering his minutes, so that he ends up seeing more playing time against second units, instead of the hockey-style rotations that Mark Jackson used to employ.

Chalk it up to small sample size inconsistencies, but Thompson is improving in all five major statistical categories (points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks). And he’s doing all of this despite playing less minutes per game than he did last season. Kerr is focused on the long run, and has shown a willingness to rest players if the game is in the bag.

He hasn’t played to the level of a $17.5 million player yet, but the steady improvements that Klay is showing in the early season are encouraging indicators that the Warriors were right to extend his contract.