Draymond Green’s breakout season provides dilemma for Warriors

The Golden State Warriors will have an interesting decision to make in the upcoming offseason – third year forward Draymond Green will be an unrestricted free agent. Based on the level of play he’s shown so far, Green is going to be a highly sought after free agent when the time comes.

But, what makes Green so special?

Standing at 6’7”, Green is an undersized power forward. He is listed as a small forward on Basketball Reference and other sites, but has played the power forward role almost exclusively for the Warriors this season. He is a “stretch-four” and has developed a three-point shot over the course of this season – he finished his rookie season shooting 20.9 percent from three, but is now shooting 36.7 percent from three (making 1.8 three-point attempts per game).

In his first two seasons, he spent most of the time on the bench. He would come off the bench and play the role of an “energy guy”, hustling for rebounds and providing sparks of energy off the bench when they needed it. This season though, coach Steve Kerr has decided to play him as a starter, adding more three-point shooting and rebounding while David Lee sits out injured.

His box score stats (13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists per game) don’t tell the whole story. A lot of what Draymond does on the court doesn’t show up on the box score. He is third in the team for plus/minus, behind Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. His defensive rating is also third highest on the team, behind centers Festus Ezeli and Andrew Bogut. Green is one of the most versatile players on the roster, capable of fitting into any of the lineups Kerr uses, which is reflected in his 644 minutes logged so far (second highest on the team).

Under this new offense, Green is thriving. Kerr likes having his big men receiving the ball at the top of the key, almost as though they are facilitating the offense. This has a two-fold effect, the players can run dribble-handoffs with the guards, and it also draws rim protectors away from the basket.

Sometimes, Kerr has Green run this set, which can lead to one of two possible outcomes. The player guarding Green has to make a decision on whether to contain the dribble penetration from the guard after he receives the ball from Green. The dribble-handoff works like a screen, Green uses his body well to seal off the opposing guard, giving his own player some separation. Now, Green’s man faces a dilemma: he can either help contain the dribble drive and leave a 36.7 percent three-point shooter open, or remain on Green and risk an easy layup.

He adds floor spacing to the motion-weak offense, and gives his fellow teammates more room to shoot. While he is on the court, the team shoots 40.5 percent from three-point range (second highest on the team) – contrast that to the team-low of 28.4 percent while he sits.

Green’s transformation from “energy guy off the bench” to “key starter” is incredible. Unfortunately, the improvement in his game in a contract year will surely drive up the price of his next contract. Here’s where the Warriors are stuck between a rock and a hard place: keeping and paying Green will surely send them into the luxury tax – something they’ve been actively trying to avoid for years. It’s clear that the Warriors have to get rid of either Andre Iguodala or Lee’s contract if they want to keep Green and avoid paying the tax.

But just how much will Green garner in the free agent market? The league is shifting values towards three-point shooting and floor spacing from big men, and Draymond Green fits that mould to a T. He adds rebounding, defense, and size – all attributes that you don’t normally get from a small-ball power forward. Only five other power forwards shoot above 30 percent from three and average more than five rebounds per game: Patrick Patterson, Channing Frye, Serge Ibaka, Kevin Love, and Jared Sullinger.

Draymond Green doesn’t have provide the same impact as Ibaka or Love will, but Frye, Patterson and Ryan Anderson will be seen as good comparisons when evaluating Green’s value on the market. I anticipate one team will offer up to $10 million a season for him, considering he’s still only 24 and that the cap will rise significantly over the next few seasons.

I would argue that Green’s value is in the $6-8 million per season range, but he will be coming off a breakout year and it only takes one team to drive his value up. He has established himself as a fan favourite and key component of this roster, making it almost a certainty that the organization will try to keep him at all costs.

This upcoming decision won’t be as big or well-reported as the Klay Thompson contract extension, but it could have similarly big repercussions on the team moving forward.