Are the Golden State Warriors as good as advertised?

The Golden State Warriors’ 16-win streak finally came to an end after losing to the Memphis Grizzlies on the road.

The Warriors still sit atop the Western Conference with a 21-3 record. But what does this loss mean for the Warriors? Are they really as good as advertised? Let’s take a look at some of the trends and statistics of their 16-win streak to figure out if they’re really contender-worthy.

Elite Offense

During the 16-game win streak, the Warriors posted an offensive rating of 112 points per 100 possessions. This would be good enough for second in the league, behind the Dallas Mavericks’ 113.4 points per 100. The Warriors have shown that they are capable of playing a high-octane, fast paced offense, which features a lot of off-the-ball cuts, off-screens, and ball movement.

In fact, they lead the league in passes made per game, and their 26.3 assists per game during the win-streak is a league best (they average 25 assists per game otherwise).

They have made the transition from a middling offensive team to one of the best in the league. They are second in the league in pace, with 98.1 possessions per game, and look to push the ball whenever they have the chance. Gone are the days of the stagnant offensive possessions, fruitless post-up possessions, and numerous frustrating isolation plays.

Elite Defense

On the defensive end, they’ve kept their status as one of the league’s best, allowing just 98.6 opposition points per 100 possessions. Having an elite defensive squad is important because it allows them to play at a fast pace.

By creating turnovers and fast breaks, it allows them to convert defense into offense in the blink of an eye, and take advantage before the opposition defense is able to set itself.

Andrew Bogut has been the lynchpin of the defense so far. His presence as an elite rim protector gives confidence to his defenders to put more ball pressure on the perimeter. They can funnel their player to the rim, knowing that Bogut will rotate over to help. This, in theory, is similar to the record-setting Indiana Pacers’ defense from last season.

They are also an elite defensive rebounding team. They are best in the league at gathering defensive rebounds, with 35.8 per game. That is an astonishing mark, considering they play Draymond Green, a small forward by trade, at the power forward position. To put things into perspective, they grabbed 73.8 percent of available defensive rebounds during their win streak.

Changes Implemented

In his first year as head coach, Steve Kerr has tinkered around with one of the league’s best plus/minus starting lineups from last season. He made two changes: he started Draymond Green due to David Lee’s injury, and shifted Andre Iguodala to the bench in favour of Harrison Barnes. There were murmurs of whether this would work before the season started, as many were questioning Kerr’s decision to break up the highly successful starting lineup from last season.

Why change something that wasn’t broken?

Well, for what it’s worth, the change worked. The lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Barnes, Green, and Bogut is a league best plus-7.5. No other starting lineup that has played as many games as they have (19) come close to their plus/minus mark.

The move has also helped improve the bench. The bench scoring was abysmal last season, putting up 28 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game in 15.3 minutes of game time. This season, they are much better, with 31.3 points, 14 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game in 17.1 minutes.

The improvements may not seem like much, but it’s important to keep in mind that Andre Iguodala is having the worst season in his career – 7.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists per game (all career lows). As he gets used to coming off the bench, there isn’t much doubt that those averages will pick up again, thus improving the bench.

Dissecting the Grizzlies’ Loss

So, with all these fancy and impressive improvements in mind, why did the Warriors still lose to the Grizzlies last night?

First off, the Grizzlies are another championship contender this season, and are going through their best start in franchise history at 20-4. Marc Gasol is having an MVP-like season, and his impact on the offensive end has helped the Grizzlies become a top-ten offensive team in the league (seventh in the league in offensive rating, behind the Warriors).

Secondly, Andrew Bogut was out. It’s easy to make excuses like these, but there’s no doubting Bogut’s impact on the court. While he’s off the court, the team’s defensive rating plummets from 93.6 (with him on) to 101.5 points per 100 possessions. That’s a 7.9 point difference. On the offensive end, it’s the same: 113.5 offensive rating on, 105.7 defensive rating off.

The Warriors were just unable to deal with the double big-man combination of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. With only one center in Festus Ezeli healthy, the Warriors relied on undersized Draymond Green and Marreese Speights to fill in time at center. Gasol and Randolph went for 41 points and 17 rebounds combined.

Thirdly, Stephen Curry went 1-of-10 from the three-point line. He scored 19 points on the night, but didn’t make up for his poor shooting performance by getting to the line. He was zero in free throw attempts. The Warriors, in total, shot 29 percent from the three-point line, and made only nine of their 31 attempts.

Fourthly, the Warriors were tired. This was the last game of their road trip, and they had just played an overtime game against the New Orleans Pelicans. This was their third game in fourth nights, while the Grizzlies had a four-day rest. You could see by the end of the game that Curry and Co. were gassed – five Warriors played over 31 minutes, and only eight Warriors played.

Finally, you could make the claim that the Warriors were on the wrong end of a decision with 3:05 in the fourth quarter left to play. Mike Conley made a layup, but appeared to have travelled in doing so. Andre Iguodala and Steve Kerr argued the call, and they both ended up getting technical for their trouble. It was a four-point possession that altered the momentum of the game.

The streak had to come to an end, and there was no better team to end it than the Memphis Grizzlies. The team fought hard, and was close there to the end despite being shorthanded.

The loss doesn’t change what we know about the Warriors – if they keep up their performance so far, they are a legitimate contender. They are an elite offensive team and one of the league’s best defensive teams. They have an MVP candidate in Stephen Curry, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Andrew Bogut, and a Coach of the Year candidate in Steve Kerr.

Yes, they are as good as advertised.