If the Golden State Warriors are a smooth Lamborghini, then the Miami Heat are a rugged Chevy clunker.
While a game is not necessarily a race, the difference in the pace of play between these two teams on Wednesday night at Oracle Arena will be clear. Entering Tuesday, the Warriors ranked first in the league in possessions per game at 101.9, while the Heat ranked dead last at 92.4. This directly translates to points per game — the Warriors are again first at 109.2 points a game, the Heat are 28th at 94.0.
It’s rather puzzling — you’d think a team with two star players in Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and legitimate role players in Luol Deng, Mario Chalmers, Danny Granger, and Norris Cole would score more points and play a little faster.
But that’s not what they want. Even last season, with LeBron James, the Heat were 27th in possessions per game at 93.3. They don’t want to play fast, to push the pace like the run-and-gun, free-flowing Warriors; rather, they want to use their skill, run plays, and methodically break down the defense.
Bosh, to the Sun Sentinel, on his team’s pace:
"“We’re a young team. That’s why we need to slow it up. You can play fast as you get older. We were one of the oldest teams in the league the past couple of years and among the fastest, because we had that veteran know-how and savvy to come down and get in the offense quickly. Now we have to kind of be precise and get the ball to where it needs to go.”"
What has helped the Heat run their style of play is the development of Hassan Whiteside, a seven-foot center who has burst upon the scene, rising from obscurity. Whiteside, who is averaging 14.4 minutes per game this season but has seen that ramp up to 23.8 per game in January, is averaging a double-double his last five games — 14.4 points and 10.0 rebounds — along with 3.3 blocks. Whiteside has tremendous length and finishes well around the rim, which meshes well with the Heat’s preferred half-court style of play.
Another reason may be the health of their stars, particularly Wade, who has missed a handful of games this season and departed last night’s game against the Lakers with a hamstring injury.
Here’s Wade, via the Miami Herald:
"“Early on, I didn’t like the pace we were going, and I knew it wasn’t going to hold up for a whole season. I like the pace we’re going because it feels like, the thing is, we’re a good shooting team and if we can stop turning the ball over and we can get the ball in the hands of guys who need to make plays, we can get good shots.”"
In other words, Wade is 32 years old, injury-prone, and has suddenly been thrust back into the driver’s seat in Miami after years of riding shotgun to LeBron. No way would he survive an entire season, in say, an offense like the Warriors’, which utilizes constant movement and pushing the pace whenever possible.
The Heat obviously aren’t the Heat of old without James, but this is a veteran team with a veteran coach in Erik Spoelstra who knows exactly how to tailor to his team’s strengths. If anything, it will be interesting to see if the Warriors can force the issue and push the tempo — in other words, rev up that Lamborghini and zoom past the Chevy.
Key Matchups
Chris Bosh vs. Andrew Bogut: This matchup seems to favor Bosh, who is extremely proficient at the mid-range jump shot and is much-improved from three-point range, shooting a career-high 40.0 percent from distance this season. Bogut does not like to venture that far out away from the paint, and Bosh would be perfectly content to shoot open perimeter shots all game.
Klay Thompson vs. Dwyane Wade: A star shooting guard on the wrong side of 30 against another star shooting guard just entering into his prime. Unfortunately, we may not get to see this matchup as Wade left last night’s game against the Lakers with a hamstring injury and probably will not test his luck on the second night of a back-to-back. It really is a shame, because watching Klay try and shut down the Heat’s top scorer would have been a treat.
Stephen Curry vs. Mario Chalmers: The last time the Warriors played the Heat (Nov. 25 in Miami), Curry dropped 40 points and eight 3-pointers on Chalmers and the Heat, both season-highs. We’ll see if the Heat make any adjustments or if Curry goes off again.
Keys to the Game
1. Push the Pace
As mentioned, the Warriors need to get out and run against the slowest team in the league; they cannot allow the Heat to slow the pace down and play half-court, where the Warriors are not as potent. Whoever can dictate the style of play will win this game.
2. Take Advantage of Depth
The Warriors are one of the deepest teams in the league, which comes in handy on the second game of a back-to-back. They beat the Jazz handily last night with no player on the floor for more than 30 minutes, and backup point guard Shaun Livingston didn’t even play, presumably to rest up for this game.
Meanwhile, the Heat, also on the back-end of a back-to-back, are minus Wade and Josh McRoberts. They do not nearly have the bench that the Warriors can put out. Look for David Lee, Andre Iguodala, and Marreese Speights to get some quality playing time tonight.
3. Control the Third Quarter
Miami is the worst third-quarter team in the NBA, scoring just 20.9 points out of the half with a horrid point differential of -4.5. Golden State, by contrast, is second in the league in third quarter points at 26.8 and outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average.
The Warriors need to come out of the half strong and take control of the game, like they did Tuesday against the Jazz.
Prediction
I hate to write the exact same thing over and over, but this looks to be another comfortable win for the Warriors. Without Wade, the Heat’s already slow and inconsistent offense will be even worse, and again, I don’t foresee much that can keep the Warriors from winning handily for their eighth straight victory.