Is Stephen Curry the Leading MVP Candidate?
By Rahil Mathur
LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose.
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These are the names of the most recent candidates that have won the Most Valuable Player Award. But, as LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers are not playing like a team with three stars is supposed to, as Kevin Durant has not even played half the games his team has played, and as Derrick Rose is still not playing like his MVP-level self, the race has opened to a slew of new candidates.
At the top of this race sits two players: Stephen Curry and James Harden.
Currently, the race really boils down to Stephen Curry vs James Harden, though LeBron is still doing LeBron-MVP things in Cleveland as they still try to figure out team basketball. Regardless, we will look at the Curry vs Harden comparison, and then MVP numbers in the past and see where the Curry/Warriors narrative comes into play.
Stephen Curry: 23.0 ppg (48.7%/39.5%/91.5%), 8.1 apg, 4.7 rpg, 2.1 spg, 3.2 tovpg
James Harden: 27.0 ppg (45.2%/38.4%/91.5%), 6.8 apg, 5.6 rpg, 2.0 spg, 4.0 tovpg
The stats are somewhat comparable. Harden leads in scoring and rebounds, while Curry edges out in assists, steals, and turnovers per game. Their shooting splits are also somewhat comparable; Curry shoots a slightly higher FG% while Harden hits free throws at the same clip as Stephen Curry on far more free throws. Most importantly, both these offensive juggernauts have drastically improved their defense from the last season and can no longer be called negative defenders.
So what sets them apart?
The narrative. The MVP Award unfortunately is not the MVP of the League Award, but in reality the award is the MVP of one of the top seeded teams. And right now, the Warriors are sitting pretty as the first seed in the West. Since 1985, no MVP has been awarded to a player on a team with a seed lower than the third. As a result, Curry inherently has the advantage over Harden in this regard by playing for the best team in the West. So yes, Curry is most likely currently leading the MVP race.
But let’s take a look at some past MVP winners to compare Curry to.
Derrick Rose (MVP 2011, 1st seed): 25.0 ppg (44.5%/33.2%/85.5%), 7.7 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 3.4 tovpg
Steve Nash (MVP 2005, 1st seed): 15.5 ppg (50.2%/43.1%/88.7%), 11.5 apg, 3.3 rpb, 1.0 spg, 3.3 tovpg
Steve Nash (MVP 2006, 2nd seed): 18.8 ppg (51.2%/43.9%/92.1%), 10.5 apg, 4.2 rpb, 0.8 spg, 3.5 tovpg
When you look at the numbers of the past point guards who have been awarded the MVP, Curry certainly fits in. Curry shoots more efficiently than Rose and edges out Rose on assists, rebounds, and steals while he betters Nash on points, rebounds, and steals. He even has a somewhat similar efficiency to Nash, though Curry suffers due to the volume of difficult shot he takes, now that defenses are designed to slow him down.
Curry has a good shot at the MVP award this year. His numbers align with past numbers of point guard MVP winners and are comparable (if not better) than the next best candidate, while his team holds the 1st seed in the brutal West.
He has the numbers, the team, and the narrative. All he needs is the award.