Are the Golden State Warriors Really Inferior to the Atlanta Hawks?
According to Ancestry.com, Korver means “basketmaker” in German. And Korver sure lived up to the family name, as he usually does, scoring 17 points on 5-9 3-point shooting.
But while Korvers generations ago may have handweaved baskets on their own, Kyle Korver had a 21st century industrial machine at his disposal, ready to churn out basket after basket. For the Hawks team that took the floor last night was not simply one basketmaker–it was a unit of them.
It was, in all senses of the words, a collective effort: all the Hawk starters scored 12 or more points, and Mike Scott added 17 points in 17 minutes off the bench.
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It was what the Warriors usually do to teams: swarm them with quick passes, plays in transition, and elite three-point marksmanship. Perhaps the Warriors were beaten at their own game, and the Hawks’ starters were simply better, their bench deeper, and their coaching more effective. It is possible that the Hawks, with the league’s best record, are simply the better team.
But as any of who have been following the Warriors know, it isn’t true. For as good as All-Star Jeff Teague is, he is nowhere near the level of Steph Curry, a starting All-Star in the Western Conference; Kyle Korver is better than Klay Thompson at shooting, but significantly worse at every single other aspect of the game; and Paul Millsap, Al Horford, and Mike Scott, while effective players, are not commensurate to the Warriors’ frontcourt depth of Andrew Bogut, Draymond Green, Marreese Speights, and David Lee.
But as any high school player that you’re losing to but still persistently trash-talking will tell you: look at the scoreboard. You might be better than me, know my ex-girlfriend’s name (social media has really facilitated trash-talk in high school sports), and have just scored on me, but if you’re losing, all one has to say is: scoreboard. You can say it, drop the mike, and have won the argument, for the scoreboard is the ultimate, supreme, and objective judge ruling in your favor.
Then who am I to challenge the scoreboard? Didn’t the Hawks beat the Warriors, and, thus, are the better team? Well, yes, in a sense. The Hawks run a more fluid team offense than the Warriors’, and, last night, it paid huge dividends: the Hawks shot a ridiculous 55.6% from the 3-point line, about two-percent more than the historic clip currently owned by the absurdly efficient basketmaker Kyle Korver.
But as great as the Hawks shot last night, their fiery three-point shooting is also evidence of the Warriors’ ultimate superiority. For it took 55.6% percent three-point shooting, 16.5% off from their season average of 39.1%, to beat the Warriors by 8 points. There has to be some eventual regression to the mean the next time the teams square off. And, if the Hawks would have shot their average three-point percentage last night? Well, then they would have lost by five.
The Warriors, by contrast, shot 36.4% from three last night, cold off of their 38.8% season average. If they had shot an average clip from three last night, then they would have made 13 three pointers, just two shy of the Hawks’ 15.
Effective offensive sets from the Hawks obviously played a part in their scalding three-point percentage, and their effective defense played a part in limiting the Warriors’ success from three. But three-point percentage is not solely an expression of the team’s ultimate offensive prowess — it is also largely an expression of how the players are feeling in a particular night. And the Warriors were playing their third game in four nights, just after flying from the Bay Area to Atlanta. The Hawks, by contrast, were playing their second home game after having a day’s rest.
We will be able see who is the better team after the Hawks come to Oracle Arena on March 18th to play the Warriors. Right now, though, the Warriors are too good, and too deep, to be written off after one cold game.
And if the Hawks defeat the Warriors in the March 18th game too? Then, I will bow down to the supreme, impartial judge, the Scoreboard, and admit that Korver and his Hawks team of other basket makers are, in fact, the best in the business.