Golden State Warriors: Odds for Warriors Repeating Justified?

It’s been just two months after the Golden State Warriors hoisted the Larry O’Brien, but the bookmakers have already begun listing title odds for win next season’s trophy. It may surprise many, but the defending champions are not considered favourites. Instead, it’s the team they beat in the NBA Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are listed as favourites.

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According to Bovada, the Warriors are tied for second with the San Antonio Spurs at 9-2.

And what did reigning MVP and Warriors’ superstar Stephen Curry have to say about this?

"“We obviously are the champs, and you’ve got to think that we’re gonna be a better team next year with our experiences that we’ve had, and we’re not the favorites. Obviously there’s been a lot of noise, teams retooling and trying to boost their lineups. You have teams that haven’t set foot on the floor yet and are heavily favored to kick us off our throne.”"

Is Curry right? Should the Warriors receive better title odds at this stage of the “season”?

The biggest reason why the Cavaliers are listed as favourites is all down to one man: LeBron James. James single-handedly willed his team in the Finals, and was very close to winning it all. In the end, the Warriors proved that their depth was ultimately too much for him and the Cavs to handle, and managed to stifle him enough to win.

We’ve heard a lot of “if the Cavs were healthy…” arguments, but the truth is that we will never know. Perhaps the Warriors still end up winning due to their superior depth and talent, and maybe a full-strength Cavaliers’ lineup ends up relying less on James, which in turn, boosts the Warriors.

The bookmakers have obviously taken this into account, and with Kevin Love re-signing with the organization, it’s an easy favourite to pick. The Cavs haven’t made any splashy moves in free agency, and are yet to re-sign Tristian Thompson, but a core of James, Love, and Kyrie Irving is a good starting point for any team. Plus, they play in the Eastern Conference – a conference that has allowed James to make five consecutive NBA Finals appearances.

The Spurs, despite their shocking first round exit last postseason, have the same title odds as the Warriors, largely due to the moves they made in free agency. They signed LaMarcus Aldridge (arguably the biggest name in free agency) and David West, and also managed to re-sign their own free agents (Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard). The departures of Cory Joseph, Tiago Splitter, and Aron Baynes will hurt the Spurs’ depth, but in true Spurs’ fashion, I’m sure they’ll find suitable replacements.

The addition of Aldridge to an ageing Spurs’ roster will undoubtedly smoothen out their transition process. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili looked significantly older last season, especially with the former having a poor run late in the season and into the playoffs. Tim Duncan is his usual spry self, but one wonders just how long he can keep delaying Father Time’s influence.

Apr 24, 2015; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs players (from left to right) Kawhi Leonard, and Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili watch on the bench against the Los Angeles Clippers in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

On paper, the Spurs’ signings elevate them to contender status in the West, but the questions surrounding their age still remain. If Parker and Ginobili continue to have poor seasons, you could make the argument that Aldridge’s starting lineup last season is better than one that includes a sub-par pairing of Parker and Ginobili, Leonard, and an ageing Duncan.

As for the Warriors, the lack of loud moves during free agency has definitely hurt their title odds (not chances). “Buzz” is always a factor when bookmakers make their odds, and is largely a reason why the Warriors’ odds are lowered. Curry’s statements are right – the Warriors’ young core will be more experienced next season, and will have had a full season under coach Steve Kerr. One of the biggest knocks against the Warriors entering last season was that they were an inexperienced team – with a new banner hanging from the rafters, that argument seems a lot weaker now.

It’s far too early to start thinking of who are favourites, but if this fires up the Warriors for their title defense, I would implore the bookmakers to keep dropping the Warriors’ odds.

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