Golden State Warriors Season Expectations: Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes had a bounce back season last year after a sophomore slump, but this season Barnes is looking to make a significant jump in his game.

I wrote here about Barnes possibly breaking out in 2016, as some of his teammates have in recent years. With a contract extension looming, it’s now or never for Barnes to ascent into NBA all stardom.

Despite the rumblings that Barnes might go back to a sixth man role while Andre Iguodala takes his place in the starting five, Coach Steve Kerr shot the rumors down, implying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

In 2014, Barnes averaged 28.3 minutes per game, and he should be around that amount this season. With Barnes’ minutes likely to be capped at just under 30, how much can we actually expect out of Barnes? In close games, Kerr will elect to have Iguodala in the game over Barnes, as he is not only a much better defender but also brings in ball-handling that takes pressure off of Stephen Curry in crunch time and allows the Warriors to get creative with Curry playing off the ball.

Barnes will be a restricted free agent at the end of the season, and both Barnes and the Warriors organization are both on record saying they’d like to agree to a long-term deal. It’s very important for both parties to come to an agreement before the season ends. If the Warriors wait until after the season to offer Barnes an extension, they may be forced to match an over-priced offer sheet from a desperate team that might give Barnes close to max dollars, with the salary cap expected to dramatically increase over the next few seasons.

So just how much is Barnes worth? Charlotte Hornets guard/forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was drafted in 2012 like Barnes, received a four-year, $52 million contract extension earlier this week. Barnes’ agent and the Warriors organization can look to Kidd-Gilchrist’s contract as a framework, and based off that Barnes should get something similar to the Charlotte swingman…probably around $13 to $15 million dollars per year.

Jun 16, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Andre Iguodala (9) high fives forward Harrison Barnes (40) during the second quarter of game six of the NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Harrison Barnes was the No. 1 rated high school player heading into his freshmen year at the University of North Carolina, but his window for his once certain NBA stardom is closing. Entering his fourth season, Barnes is in danger of becoming the next Marvin Williams – a high ranked wing player who never really taps into all the raw talent he has.

Barnes is not far off from being a fringe star in this league. The key is for Barnes to develop a respectable handle, and doing so would take the Warriors offense to the next level. If Barnes is able to grab rebounds and push the ball up the court — similar to how Draymond Green can do — transition defenses will be scrambled around trying to stop the break and Barnes can either attack the rim using his quickness and strength or kick out to Curry or Klay Thompson.

Gaining a handle would also help Barnes better attack the rim which could ease the scoring burden on the Splash Brothers. Barnes developing a handle is important because the Warriors really don’t have a third option to go to when the shots are falling, and with an improved Western Conference, Golden State will need to see more out of Barnes.

Averaging close to 14 points and 6 rebounds are reasonable expectations for Barnes, who has been working hard this off-season with Jerry West to improve his game.

Here’s to hoping we have more of these moments in 2015: