For the Golden State Warriors, 30 is a Prime Number
In Defense of Their Decline
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
According to the 2010 book Stumbling on Wins by economists David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt, 25 was the estimated age in which the average NBA player would peak, after which a decline would slowly but surely follow.
In a later study featured on NBAMiner.com in 2014, the estimated age in which the average NBA player would be in their prime moved to around the age of 26, with the peak most likely being at 29. After that, a decline would be noticeable around the age of 31.
Further analysis proved that position was a factor that determined how long a player’s prime was and at what age they would peak.
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Centers (like Bogut) seemed to have a longer time in their prime (26-34 years old). As they say: “you can’t teach size,” but you can continually teach a big man how to better utilize his size as time goes on. Guard-forwards (like Iguodala) seemed to peak and decline earlier mostly due to their reliance on natural athleticism.
As aforementioned, Bogut and Iguodala play important roles on this team, namely on the defensive end.
Per NBA Stats, Bogut posted a net defensive rating of -5.0, meaning that teams score roughly five less points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. That’s the second best net defensive rating among the starters, and it’s the second best net defensive rating on the team behind Green’s -6.1. Another way to look at it is Bogut effectively staved off about two of the opposing team’s possessions, which anyone can tell you is normally the deciding factor in close games.
As for Iguodala, his net defensive rating of -3.1 is the best off the bench, fourth best on the team (Curry posted a -3.2).
Even as they slowly decline, the obvious defensive prowess of Bogut and Iguodala alone makes them invaluable additions to a team that already features scorers like Curry and Klay Thompson. But what happens when Curry goes down? What happens when Thompson just can’t get it going? Who do the Warriors turn to when they desperately need a go-to scorer?
Frankly, Iguodala and Bogut would probably be at the bottom of that list.
Next: A Closer Look at Iguodala