Golden State Warriors: Should Fans Lower Expectations For Next Season?

As a basketball fan, I tend to listen to my fair share of podcasts and analyses from experts. This being the offseason, many of them have started to preview next season, forming early opinions on which teams are threats to win it all next June.

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The biggest surprise that I’ve gathered from their opinions is that many experts don’t believe the Golden State Warriors will improve next season. In fact, many feel as though they reached their ceiling last season, and due to their extreme luck, the Warriors’ fanbase will be in for a bit of a letdown next season.

As a fan, it’s hard not to react poorly to their assumptions. But objectively speaking, are they correct? Will the Warriors find it hard to replicate their success from last season? And should fans lower expectations?

Let’s take a look at some of the record-breaking numbers from last season: 67 wins, 10.1 point differential, best defensive rating, second-best offensive rating, a 16-game win streak, and a 19-game win streak at home. The 2014-15 Warriors are already being talked about as one of the best regular season teams of all-time, tying for the sixth-best regular season record in NBA history.

Looking back, those are some big shoes to fill. While referring to the Warriors’ success as “lucky” is severely downplaying the players’ skill, dedication, and contributions, luck certainly played a big factor in the Warriors’ championship run. Their key rotation players suffered no major injuries, except Andrew Bogut, while their opponents in the offseason always seemed to have someone missing.

But good health isn’t the only factor in a 67-win season.

Jun 19, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr speaks during the Golden State Warriors 2015 championship celebration at the Henry J. Kaiser Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The case for the Warriors improving next season is that last season was head coach Steve Kerr’s rookie season. There are always growing pains when it comes to rookie head coaches and their teams, and it stands to reason that another year together could help improve certain aspects of the team-coach relationship. Perhaps another year results in more familiarity with Kerr’s coaching system, and might even allow him to add more complex layers to their Xs and Os.

The other factor to consider is the Warriors’ age. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green are all under the age of 28 – widely considered to be the athletic prime for a sportsperson. With four of the five starters still improving and maturing physically, wouldn’t it make sense that the Warriors will improve? All eyes will be on Barnes, who will be in his fourth season in the NBA. With a possible contract extension on the line, Barnes will have to put in a big performance next season if he wants a bigger slice of the pie – which could result in the Warriors having a better season.

On the other end of the spectrum, there will be many things going against the Warriors next season. The departure of associate head coach Alvin Gentry will be a major blow – Gentry was in charge of running and designing the offense, and it is still unsure whether recently promoted coach Luke Walton can step in and fill the gap. Gentry’s role in improving the offense did not go unnoticed, and Walton will have big shoes to fill.

Feb 19, 2015; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) attempts a shot against Dallas Mavericks forward Chandler Parsons (25) during the second quarter at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Western Conference is also shaping up to be even more of a bloodbath next season. The San Antonio Spurs reloaded by signing marquee free agent LaMarcus Aldridge, the Los Angeles Clippers managed to retain DeAndre Jordan and address their bench problems, the Oklahoma City Thunder will have a fit Kevin Durant, and the Houston Rockets will have a shiny new point guard in Ty Lawson.

The Warriors had an easier run last season with Durant and the Thunder struggling with injuries, the Spurs looking significantly older, the Clippers dealing with their own self-destructive ways, and the Rockets being decimated by injuries. They might not have the same luck next season, and navigating the West is always a tricky task.

Personally, I think that expecting the Warriors to match their historic run from last season is irrational. The 2014-15 Warriors will go down in NBA history as one of the best modern-day regular season teams – the result of multiple things coming together to create the perfect situation. Fans need to prepare themselves for when the Warriors don’t seem like their dominant self next season. And instead of complaining about how the team took a step back, fans will need to remember that the 2014-15 Warriors are a special group. Expecting them to replicate that same dominance is an unfair task.

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