Golden State Warriors: Old School vs Analytics

Earlier this week, Jerry West’s comments on basketball analytics may have surprised many, considering how big of a role basketball analytics has played in the Golden State Warriors success. After all, his comment came just a few days after Grantland’s Zach Lowe published an article that had shed more insight on how the Warriors’ stance on basketball analytics:

"The Warriors rested Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry last March after data from Catapult devices (used in practices) and SportVU cameras indicated their bodies had reached extreme fatigue levels"

West has played an integral role in the Warriors’ success, especially last season when he highly recommended that the Warriors keep Klay Thompson instead of acquiescing to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ trade demands. As we all know, Thompson flourished under coach Steve Kerr’s direction, and could now be the best two-way shooting guard in the league. This offseason, West continued to work with Harrison Barnes, and the Warriors were so buoyed by West’s involvement with the team, that they went ahead and signed recently retired Steve Nash to a similar role.

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In his comments, West claimed that if you “Give me the best players, and give me a great coach, and we’ll beat these analytically-based organizations all the time”. While it is true that talent still goes a long way in deciding who wins in the NBA, we’ve seen recent examples of where the “talent always succeeds” argument fails.

When the Detroit Pistons signed Josh Smith in the 2013 offseason, the belief was that between the talents of Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond, the trio could make it work. Unfortunately, the three simply couldn’t mesh due to their lack of floor spacing – a prediction that a more analytical-driven basketball front office could have foreseen.

Another example is the 2012 Los Angeles Lakers. The star-studded starting five included All-Stars at every position, and was regarded by many media outlets as the best starting five in modern-day history. With Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Metta World Peace, there was little reason to doubt whether the Lakers would be a contender that season. However, the Lakers crashed and burned due to a multitude of reasons. While it is hard to definitively determine whether advanced metrics could have predicted their downfall, it would have been able to predict the effect of playing a fast-tempo offense on the Lakers’ ageing bodies.

May 28, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Miami Heat center Chris Bosh (1), forward LeBron James (6), and guard Dwyane Wade (3) react during the fourth quarter in game five against the Indiana Pacers of the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Miami 93-90. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The 2011 Miami Heat could also be seen as an example – it was the first year of the Big Three era (LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade), but it took them a year of meshing and an injury to Chris Bosh in order to find an optimised lineup for the trio. These are all examples of where despite having the best collection of talent, the teams weren’t able to fully capitalize.

But advanced metrics aren’t faultless either. Before the Houston Rockets were able to acquire James Harden, they hovered around the .500 mark for several seasons as they played their brand of efficient “Moreyball”. Small sample sizes are notorious for skewing data and statisticians are finding it hard to properly quantify a player’s defensive contributions.

Both sides have compelling arguments and it’s impossible to pick just one. But it’s undeniable the effect advanced metrics are having on NBA organizations today – teams that don’t embrace the movement are in danger of being left behind in the dust. The ability to track player movement, player efficiency, how hard a player works, and their physical condition, is a tool that teams have never had before, and can only serve to help rather than harm.

But of course, advanced metrics are not the be all and end all of things. The ultimate test is finding a balance between the two – a balance that perhaps the Golden State Warriors have found.

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