The Warriors look headed for a title, but away games are a different monster. How will the Finals in Cleveland change the narrative?
As much fun as it is to blow out your Finals opponent twice in a row at home, everyone should know that no playoff series really starts until someone drops a home game or Game 7. The Golden State Warriors look primed for a Finals sweep, but going into Cleveland is no small task, and these games will be different than the first two. Let’s look at how.
Away Games and Bench Play
We’ve already written about this, but it bears repeating.
Traditionally speaking, role players are significantly better at home than on the road. It was a given that the Warriors probably won’t destroy the Cavaliers bench every game, but if there’s any place that they need to step up it’s here. The Cavaliers bench is visibly stronger at home. Their three most important role players right now are Iman Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova, and Channing Frye. All three see massive leaps in their +/- at home, with Frye jumping from a -0.9 away to a +9.8 at home.
Not just that, but important Warriors bench guys are significantly weaker on the road. Shaun Livingston’s +/- drops 11 points, and his field goal percentage plummets from 58.0% to 48.9%. Granted, that percentage still looks good, but Golden State has leaned on his ability to punish Cleveland so far, and a drop off from him hurts. In addition, Marreese Speights falls off a cliff from a 5.4 +/- at home to -2.9 away. Really, the only heavy-usage bench player who doesn’t suffer as much is Iguodala, whose field goal percentage is fairly similar and still sports a solid +/-. That’s fortunate, given his importance in this series.
Golden State has gotten away with mediocre (for them) play from Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on offense so far due to the stellar play of the bench and Andrew Bogut pulling a Benjamin Button and aging back to his Milwaukee persona. That won’t fly in the away games. The Cavaliers are off-kilter from getting punched in the mouth at Oracle, but there’s a lot of comfort at home, and the crowd at Quicken Loans Arena is going to be bonkers. The Warriors are going to need normal offensive production from their stars if they want to continue the trend they have established so far this series.
Lineups, Floor Spacing, and the Absence of Kevin Love
Diagnosed with a concussion following a collision with Harrison Barnes’ elbow in Game 2, Kevin Love is listed as questionable for Game 3. Even if he is available, it’s unlikely he’ll play the same role he has so far or be 100%. Love has been fairly weak so far in the Finals, getting exposed on defense repeatedly despite doing a decent amount of scoring. He certainly hasn’t looked like the long-range bomber he was in the first three rounds. His absence creates lineup wrinkles for Cleveland, who will have to turn to a scorching-hot Channing Frye in his place to keep from losing the spacing that’s key to their success. However, this changes the look of the Cavaliers bench. Without Frye to lead their assault from beyond the arc, Shumpert becomes magnitudes more important, as does Dellavedova.
The only real options the Cavaliers have in starting lineups now are going fully small, running Frye at center and LeBron James at the 4, or simply swapping in Frye for Love.
The latter seems more likely to open games, but the former will definitely see more time. Running Frye at center could cause big problems for Golden State, since it would drag Andrew Bogut to the perimeter. Bogut’s stellar interior work has allowed the Warriors to perfectly execute a game plan based on neutralizing Cleveland’s (read: LeBron’s) inside-out game, allowing perimeter defenders to stay true on shooters with the interior covered. If Bogut gets pulled too far away from the paint, one of two things will happen: LeBron will find his shot inside of six feet (bad), or Frye will start torching the Dubs from the corners and wing (also bad). Honestly, I’m not sure why this hasn’t been tried more yet.
One move that we might also see is more of Timofey Mozgov in the mix. His offense gave the Warriors issues last year, but he’s not nearly as strong on defense or rebounding as Tristan Thompson. If he sees success in the second unit, a lot of pressure will land on Festus Ezeli to neutralize him.
Death, Taxes, and the LeBron James Murder Game
He might have a busted jumper and a rough Finals so far, but LeBron James is still largely who he has been for the last five years. He’s a likely top-3 all time player with an on/off switch ability to elevate his game when his team needs it. It won’t be enough to win this series, but Golden State needs to look out for the Death Game. It happens every time. It happened to the Celtics in Game 6 back in 2012, it happened to the Warriors last year in Game 3, and we’ll probably see one this year. When his back is against the wall, James has a marked ability to single handedly wreck an entire game in inhuman fashion. He knows how important these games are, and he’s due for another monster showing.
Cleveland isn’t guaranteed a win when this happens, but it’s a storm that Golden State needs to be prepared to weather. Sweeps in the Finals are rare; sweeping LeBron James might be even harder. Personally, I’d bet this happens in Game 4 following a Game 3 loss for Cleveland.
There’s every reason to believe Golden State his headed for a title, but the games in enemy territory are going to look different. Don’t forget we’re only halfway through at best, and Cleveland is still dangerous. I originally called Golden State in 6 this year, but after games 1 and 2 I’m leaning more towards 5. Much as fans in the Bay would love to see it, I don’t quite buy a sweep here. In truth, only time will tell.