The Golden State Warriors shocked most people’s world and acquired Kevin Durant. Although, for those who were following the tea leaves, Durant’s move to the Bay shouldn’t come as much of a surprise.
The NBA world has spent the day crowning the Warriors champions for the next five years because of Durant. These experts should be careful because there’s no guarantees in life. As good as the Warriors starting five are they have other questions and holes to fill.
The most obvious one; who is their Center? Draymond Green is not an answer. As good as Green is, he’s not capable of playing Center 40 minutes a game for the next 100 plus games. Green will get worn down by the wear and tear of playing against guys 30 pounds heavier than him.
Also, the Warriors switching defense will take their only rim protector away from the basket.
How many times was Green on the perimeter against the Cavaliers and Tristan Thompson was able to get offensive rebounds? Far too many. Teams realize the Warriors are small and will pound them inside just like Oklahoma City and Cleveland did.
Another weakness the Warriors have is a lack of role players. The team is six deep as we speak. Shaun Livingston is the only reliable bench player. One of the reasons why the Warriors struggled shooting in the NBA Finals is because they got worn down from two seven game series. The worst possible thing for a jump shooting team is fatigue and we saw this in the Finals.
Having no bench will see this trend repeat itself. The Warriors won’t win the Championship with their “Core Four” playing 40 minutes per game for 100 plus games. They need to find at least three players who can fill in for 15 minutes or so.
There is no question the Warriors will have the best starting five in NBA history, but NBA Championships aren’t won on paper (see Los Angeles Lakers adding Karl Malone and Gary Payton). They are won because of chemistry, cohesion and having the right egos.
This last point is huge. The Warriors had two high character guys in Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes. They played their role, didn’t complain and let others shine.
Bogut was the Warriors most impactful defender and based upon the NBA “real plus minus” last season the best defender on the team. Bogut was first in the NBA in defensive plus minus at 5.45 while Green was third at 5.04. Meanwhile, Durant was 0.97 and 13th at his position. The Warriors are losing defense and screen setting with Bogut leaving.
It’s up for debate how Durant will fit in with the Warriors. Even though he’s an underrated passer and likes to facilitate, he is not coming to the Bay to be second or third wheel. He’s coming to be the man. How will Curry receive this?
Adrian Wojarnowski of the Vertical said that the sole reason Nike wanted Durant in Golden State was to take away Stephen Curry and Under Armour’s shine. This is what Durant will do, he will come in and get 20 shots per game. Curry’s points per game will decrease, Klay Thompson’s points and shots will decrease and Green will be lucky to score 14 points per game this season.
This is not a problem if they win the championship. What if they don’t?
Is it possible for the best team ever assembled on paper to not win the NBA Championship. Sure it is.
There are lots of egos Steve Kerr needs to nurture. Thompson needs to accept being the third scoring option and Green needs to accept the role of defending, rebounding, and facilitating, which means forget about scoring.
It’s also possible that a team like the San Antonio Spurs with newly-acquired Pau Gasol could beat the Warriors. A lineup of Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge and Gasol is pretty good. It isn’t Warriors good, but the Spurs have more depth and a better coach so anything is possible.
The Cavs are going to be able to coast throughout the regular season and postseason, so Lebron James will be fresh like in this years finals. Also, keep in mind the one player Durant can’t beat is James. Ever since the 2012 NBA Finals James has been Durant’s kryptonite mostly because of his size and ability to wear Durant down in the post.
The Cavs will make some kind of a move, whether it be trading Kevin Love or acquiring a veteran at the trade deadline. It might not be enough, but the fact that the Cavs have James and Kyrie Irving make them a huge threat.
The final impediment could be expectations. With Durant’s move the Warriors became the 2010-14 Miami Heat on steroids. It isn’t good enough for the Warriors to win the championship but they will be expected to win 75 plus games and go 16-0 in the playoffs next season. Those are lofty expectations, though the Warriors have shown they can handled pressure.
Acquiring Durant sent ripples through NBA circles. Players, analysts and fans weighed in with varying opinions. Some crowned the Warriors champions and praised Durant’s move while others called him cowardly and weak.
We will see the impact of Durant’s decision over the next year or so. It might turn out to be Gold for the Bay or it could pose the question ” is the grass always greener on the other side?”