Ranking the Western Conference 8th Seeds
By Paul Matli
The second half of the NBA season will be a battle to see which team becomes the eighth seed and the right to face the Golden State Warriors in the first round.
For the third season in a row, the Golden State Warriors will be the number one seed in the Western Conference once the postseason starts. As the number one seed, they will play the eighth seed.
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Most years the eighth seed would be irrelevant because the talent level between the first and eighth is too great for them to even win a game. This year is a bit different. There are three teams the Warriors will be monitoring between now and the end of the regular season.
The Denver Nuggets, Portland Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans are the notable teams battling for the right to face the Warriors. All three of these teams have strengths and weakness, but aren’t even .500 teams.
Of the three teams, the team the Warriors are hoping to avoid would be a healthy Denver Nuggets team. The assumption would be the New Orleans Pelicans with newly acquired Demarcus Cousins, but as will be discussed later, they won’t challenge Golden State the way Denver could.
The reason the Nuggets are the eighth seed right now is Nikola Jokic. As talented as Cousins and Anthony Davis are, Jokic isn’t too far behind them as far as skill level. In fact, Jokic’s style of play contributes to winning more than Davis and Cousins do. Also, Jokic is ranked higher than Davis and Cousins in real plus minus.
Jokic might be the best passing Center in the league. He has two triple doubles and is averaging 4.3 assists per game. His passing, along with newly added Mason Plumlee, provides the Nuggets with two very good passing big men.
It’s not just Jokic though. Players like Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, Gary Harris, Jameer Nelson, Emmanuel Mudiay, Will Barton and improving rookie Jamal Murray are all solid to above average rotation players.
The Nuggets have the best combination of inside out play and depth to potentially win a game against the Warriors. They are a fun team to watch, so a Warriors and Nuggets first round series would be a treat for the new school NBA fans who enjoy passing and three pointers.
The Warriors are a competitive team, so they are hoping for the Nuggets considering the Nuggets have beat them this season. Though,the team they should want is the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Trail Blazers were a trendy pick to make a deep run in the playoffs, but having two small guards who can’t defend and no rim protection caught up to them.
The Blazers can score, but would easily give up 120 plus to the Warriors because Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are two of the worst defenders at their positions. Lillard is 71 out of a possible 81 point guards in defensive plus minus, while McCollum is 86th out of a possible 100 in defensive plus minus and Allen Crabbe is 99th out of 100 among shooting guards.
The fact Lillard, McCollum and Crabbe are this bad defensively illustrates how easy of a matchup they would be for the Warriors. The only reason they played the Warriors tough last sesaon was Al Farouq Aminu shot out of his mind from 3-point range. He’s not doing that this season which means Portland is not as good.
The Trail Blazers have been a whipping boy for the Warriors in every game they’ve played this season when Lillard and McCollum both play. The one close game was with Lillard out. When both of them play, the Warriors feast.
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It remains to be seen what the New Orleans Pelicans will look like with Davis and Cousins. They have potential to be the best front line since Tim Duncan and David Robinson. However, Davis and Cousins have a long way to go defensively and they don’t have a shooting guard or small forward to give the Warriors any trouble.
For the Warriors the most entertaining part about the second half of the season will be monitoring these three teams to see which one they will end up playing.