FiveThirtyEight have unleashed their newest algorithm projections, and it gives the Golden State Warriors a 51% chance at winning the NBA Finals.
Traditional projections would hate the uber-talented Golden State Warriors.
Why? Well, simply because this team has yet to peak.
They’ve yet to showcase their true elite talent on the largest platform. Earlier this season, the Warriors were being dismantled, succumbing to a four-game losing streak. They lose five of six, including that four-game losing streak.
Now second in the West, traditional projections would rate them as such, giving the edge to the Nuggets and many Eastern Conference teams. The Warriors have the league’s fourth-highest win percentage yet are still widely regarded as the best team in both conferences.
Here’s an important excerpt from FiveThirtyEight’s description of the Warrior’s chances.
"Those numbers, far more in line with conventional wisdom, are based on two things: First, Golden State has an insane amount of talent when healthy — far more than any other club. (This is reflected in the full-strength CARMELO.) Second, the system believes that the Warriors are nowhere near their peak yet because of all the injuries they’ve dealt with to this point."
The Warriors have two legitimate superstars and five 2018 All-Stars on their roster. At full health, their roster is loaded with talent, and they’ve, like FiveThirtyEight pointed out, have clearly yet to reach their peak.
Being given a 51% chance to win the Finals is pretty solid; however, for the Golden State Warriors, it shouldn’t be good enough. They have arguably the league’s best player at each position. While that’s a long shot, it’s still an argument that could be had.
Their regular season doesn’t quite reflect their talent level which is what FiveThirtyEight figured out.
Fans and analysts alike overreact when the Warriors fail to be one of the league’s top teams in the regular season. Remembering that the original Big 3 have been to four straight NBA Finals is crucial in understanding why the regular season often times feels so sluggish.
Moving forward, the only rankings we need are the ones that they’re going to be provided. The in-season updated ones from media outlets don’t compare to those from FiveThirtyEight. There’s so much more to factor into rankings then recent play, and they understand that.