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ESPN projections give Bucks double the Golden State Warriors championship odds

By Nathan Beighle

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 07: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks is defended by Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors during a game at Fiserv Forum on December 07, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Warriors defeated the Bucks 105-95. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - DECEMBER 07: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks is defended by Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors during a game at Fiserv Forum on December 07, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Warriors defeated the Bucks 105-95. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /
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The Golden State Warriors have won back-to-back championships, but ESPN is still showing the unproven Milwaukee Bucks more love.

The Milwaukee Bucks have made moves this season, closing the gap between them and the Golden State Warriors. Easily the East’s best team, the Bucks have yet to prove at the highest level that they’re the team to beat.

For now, the East still seems open. Per ESPN simulations, the Bucks are the favorite not to win just the East but to win the NBA Finals. However, what they use is an algorithm based on BPI and the team’s remaining schedule.

"Each day, the season is simulated 10,000 times, according to BPI and the remaining schedule for each team."

The Warriors are given a 19% chance to take their third straight championship. They’re one of just three teams to be given over a 10% chance. They’re joined by obviously the Bucks and then also by the Toronto Raptors. The Bucks are given a 38.8% to claim the hardwear.

Given how dominant the Bucks have been this season, it’s not too out there for an algorithm to assume they’re the better team. They’re one of the league’s top offenses and have proven to play much more intense on the defensive end than the vast majority of teams.

On top of that, they’ve made a commitment to get better. Adding Brook Lopez this past offseason and Nikola Mirotic right before the trade deadline, the Bucks are serious about taking over the East and eventually the league at large.

But, right now, it’s the Warriors league.

It’d be nice to see the algorithm that ESPN used to predict the team’s record and Finals’ odds a bit more in-depth, potentially including how dominant the Dubs have been over the last few seasons.

Taking into account just this season, the Bucks have the crown. After four straight seasons of 95+ games, the Warriors have looked tired during the regular season, one reason why they’ve struggled both early in the season and following the All-Star break.

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The Bucks shouldn’t be slept on, but the Warriors are still the league’s best team.

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