The Golden State Warriors are set for a season very different from the rest of the Steve Kerr era, but it will be a familiar face leading the way.
There is a scenario, albeit an unlikely one, where the Golden State Warriors miss the playoffs next season. The losses of Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala (permanently), as well as Klay Thompson (for the majority of the year at least) have reduced the Warriors to mortal status.
With the place at the summit suddenly unoccupied, several teams have pounced. Franchises are mortgaging their future for a shot to win now, giving up draft picks, young players and stability in exchange for proven stars who can produce results instantly.
The Western Conference is full of teams going all in.
Both Los Angeles teams gave up unprecedented hauls to become bona fide contenders instantly. The Houston Rockets traded for Russell Westbrook in their own Hail Mary move. Even the Utah Jazz, an organization that has embodied steady progression, has made drastic changes this summer.
You then have the likes of the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, who believe continuity and last season’s playoff experience will allow them to take the next step.
And what about the younger teams? Could next year be the time for the Dallas Mavericks, Sacramento Kings, or New Orleans Pelicans to prove that they have arrived?
Last, but never least, would anyone dare bet against the San Antonio Spurs making the postseason?
Without even including the Warriors, there are at least 10 teams in the West with realistic playoff aspirations. With Golden State vulnerable, the majority of the Conference is seeking to capitalize after half a decade after bowing down to the juggernaut in the Bay.
Therefore all these teams have plenty of motivation; there is at last a pathway to playing basketball in late May, or even until June. In contrast, one could forgive the Warriors for not looking ahead to the upcoming campaign with the same hunger.
The effects of five straight trips to the Finals took their toll on Golden State last season, as it seemed that almost every player on the roster was carrying some sort of injury. An 82-game scrap just to be a top-eight seed could be a big challenge mentally for the survivors of the defeat to the Toronto Raptors.
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Although fresh blood, such as D’Angelo Russell and Willie Cauley-Stein have been brought in, much of the Warriors’ success next year will depend on similar figures to previous years, especially if the new pieces do not mesh.
Stephen Curry will surely have to play at least 70 regular season games, something he has not managed in the past two seasons due to nagging lower-body issues.
Kevon Looney will have to adopt a role greater than the one he occupied in 18 minutes per game last year, once he recovers from a brutal rib injury sustained in the Finals.
Meanwhile, coach Steve Kerr, despite being magnificent throughout his Warriors tenure, will have to adapt his strategy without the luxury of calling on the otherworldly talent of Durant and Thompson.
Both physically and mentally, Golden State will be tested to the limit. That is why Draymond Green, forever their emotional leader, will be so crucial.
Green himself is not one to go flat-out in the regular season. He famously said that “there are 82-game players, then there are 16-game players”, with Draymond preferring the latter. Last year, he coasted until March before dramatically getting himself in shape for the playoffs.
Next season, though, will be different, since it is arguably the biggest one of Green’s career. With his five-year, $82 million contract entering its final year, he is in line for a major raise. Just how much his wage increases will be determined by his effort on the court.
Draymond has the opportunity to make himself available for the ‘supermax’, the largest contract that a team can offer to a player. To achieve this, he must either make an All-NBA team, win MVP or win Defensive Player of the Year. While the first two qualifications may be out of Green’s reach, the final one is there for the taking.
In the most recent postseason, Green showcased his outstanding defensive qualities. His versatility and incredible reading of the game more than compensated for his unspectacular athleticism and anchored the Warriors defense.
On certain nights, especially in the playoffs, he is undoubtedly the best defender in the league. What Green must do to regain the accolade that he won in 2017 his play to that level on any given night.
The incentive for Draymond is obvious. If he does win Defensive Player of the Year, the Warriors can offer him $221 million over five years compared to the $190 million if he does not, going by this year’s salary cap. The most another team can pay him is $141 million over four years.
Ergo Green has at least $31 million on the line. After accepting less money to aid team success in the past, he will surely be determined to get every dollar he can in, at 29, what will likely be his last significant payday.
Much has been made of the Warriors unenviable cap situation. With Curry and Thompson already on long, substantial contracts, re-signing Green will result in a heavy luxury tax bill.
Yet in the short-term, the forward’s impending free agency is a blessing for Golden State. Draymond should be fully-motivated from the beginning of next season, especially defensively, driving his team to the playoffs and himself towards the supermax.
The vast majority of NBA players, regardless of their physical stature, can be a passable defender if they give maximum effort. With Green leading the way, the Warriors should remain above-average on that end, meaning they can make the most of their offensive firepower.
For some time, there has been a sizeable faction that believes that Green is the Warriors’ most important player. That theory could soon be proven. If Russell struggles to adapt to a new system, if Curry’s injury issues resurface, or if Kerr needs inspiration, Green will be the solution.
Golden State should still make the playoffs.
They have the talent, they have the veteran experience, and they have a new arena to impress. However, with the West loaded with strong, ambitious teams, they will need their heartbeat to be on top form. Thankfully, Draymond Green should need no extra motivation.