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Will the Golden State Warriors beat oddsmakers predictions?

By Ken Tavarez

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 15: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after making a three-point basket against the Sacramento Kings in the first quarter at Golden 1 Center on December 15, 2020 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 15: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after making a three-point basket against the Sacramento Kings in the first quarter at Golden 1 Center on December 15, 2020 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /
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Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Key to Offense – Gravity

So while we are feeling better about the defense, the offense is still a big question mark. We just saw Steph put on an offensive display in the preseason that proves that he is still in his prime. The concern is who is going to help him.

While Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have shown they can score, they really haven’t done it in an efficient manner on a winning team. The term “looter in a riot” is often used when describing players that put up good numbers on bad teams. Every team scores 90-100 points a game, so someone has to get the points.

However, I don’t feel that will be the situation in Golden State.

For one, culture matters, you have highly respected vets in Steph and Draymond as well as a great coaching staff. Wiggins and Oubre are coming from poorly run franchises where they had more offensive responsibility than they were capable of handling.

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At Golden State, Steph Curry makes the game a lot easier for everyone. He is an analytics darling due to the metric he made famous, “gravity”. Defenses need to pick up Steph as soon as he crosses half court because he is a threat from as far back as the edge of the mid-court logo.

That creates incredible spacing for the offense. Every time he has the ball behind the 3-point line defenses have to scramble to defend him. That bends and even breaks the defense, thus creating opportunities for the other players.

The other form of gravity is vertical, which occurs when a team has a good rim running big man. These big men are lob threats that keep defenses honest when a teammate is driving into the paint. JaVale McGee has been the only semblance of a vertical threat in recent years.

But now the Warriors have James Wiseman, the 2nd overall pick, a big man that will make teams respect the lob.

With these two forms of gravity, coupled with a great offensive system and stars that are willing passers, don’t be surprised if Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have their best statistical seasons.

Both players for their careers shoot 33 percent on 3-pointers and have 51 percent effective Field Goal percentages (eFG%).

I predict their marksmanship on 3s will increase to 36-37 percent and their eFG% to increase to 55 percent, similar to what happened with Tim Hardaway Jr. when he went from the Knicks to the Mavericks.

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