Golden State Warriors: Missing Klay Thompson

The comment section from my last article, “Golden State Warriors are reloading not rebuilding” had one consistent theme, it was anger over the omission of Klay Thompson. Many readers were upset that I didn’t mention him when I was talking about the team’s core players. Trust me, that was not my intention. In fact, I am such a big fan of Klay that the news of his season-ending Achilles injury inspired me to write my first article for Blue Man Hoop, “Golden State Warriors are still America’s team”.

There is no way to replace Klay, so it’s not fair to expect Kelly Oubre Jr. or Andre Wiggins to magically turn into one of the best outside shooters and two-way players in the game. But what the fans can do is appreciate what the Warriors do have, a nice young athletic team with a stud rookie in James Wiseman. While the Warriors have started to develop chemistry and a style of play more conducive to the talent on the roster, it doesn’t mean we can’t ask ourselves, how good would this team be if Klay didn’t get hurt again?

The Golden State Warriors have been keeping the ship afloat but don’t forget about the impending return of Klay Thompson.

We will never know how good this Warriors team would have been if the injury didn’t occur, but it’s safe to say that they would have gotten off to a better start just because of chemistry and the shooting gravity Klay commands. But when you look at the metrics used to analyze how good a team is, there is a lot to be excited about.

Team Points Differential

One of the true indicators of how good a team is not their record, but their point differential (diff). When the Warriors were competing for championships they were not just winning, they were dominating. They would win on average by more than +10 points per game. That is pretty amazing when you consider that most NBA most games are decided within the last two minutes. Conversely, last season, when they were the worst team in the NBA, they lost by an average of -8.7 points per game.

This season, the Warriors have a winning record, 8-7 after 15 games, which is respectable in the West. However, their point differential is -2.6, which is 21st in the NBA this season.

The good news is that the Warriors’ strength of schedule (SoS) has been one of the hardest in the NBA. After getting blown out in the first two games, the Warriors have been much more competitive. In their upset win against the Lakers, the spread was 8.5 points.

When you look at the schedule, there are really only two games where you might think Klay’s presence could have resulted in a win; Indiana and Denver. Even though they would have still lost versus Brooklyn and Milwaukee, they wouldn’t have gotten blown out. The other thing to consider is that Draymond didn’t play in the first 4 games of the season. So we could assume that the Warriors have won 1 or maybe 2 more games. But what would have improved dramatically is their point differential, which wouldn’t be negative. It would have probably been closer to their 2013-14 margin (+4.8), the season in which they won 51 games.

3-point shooting

After point differential, the next stat that is a leading indicator of team success is 3PT shooting%. The Warriors have been one of the best teams because they have had three of the best shooters in NBA history; Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant. This season they only have one, Curry, and it’s reflected in their shooting. While Steph is 2nd in the NBA in 3-pointers made per game at 4.1, the Warriors as a team are 13th. They are averaging 13.1 made 3PT shots per game on 34.6% shooting.

If Klay was playing, they would be in the top 5. His replacement, Kelly Oubre Jr. was been awful on 3-pointers, shooting only 20.7% on 5.7 shots per game. Klay would double that, in 2018-19 he shot 41.9% on 7.7 attempts per game. That would dramatically change the Warrior’s output on 3-pointers. Having Klay out there would also help Steph Curry, who has been getting double and triple-teamed. Klay’s shooting gravity would make the game easier for Steph who is only shooting 37.1% from 3 on 11.1 attempts per game. Klay’s presence alone would help Steph be more efficient as his FG3% would increase to his career average of 43%.

On the bright side, there is no reason to believe that Oubre’s shooting won’t improve, he shot 35% on 3-pointers last season. Once he gets into a rhythm, he will probably go through a hot streak. You figure that just being around the best outside shooter in NBA history would rub off on him, improvement by osmosis. He will also start getting used to having so many clean looks.

Defense

The Warriors have always been known for their defense, so despite being without their all-NBA defender, they have still managed to be one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. Their Adjusted Defensive rating of 107.72 is the 5th best, which is great. Usually, the best defensive teams tend to also have the best records. Playing great defense will help the Warriors stay in games in which their offense sputters. It looks like the front office’s strategy of loading up on players with long wingspans is working.

When Klay returns…

While it doesn’t do the fans any good to wonder how much better the Warriors would have been if Klay didn’t get hurt. It’s interesting to see how close the Warriors are to returning to championship level play. Don’t be surprised if the Warriors bring back Kelly Oubre Jr. next season to play alongside Klay, Steph, Draymond and Wiseman. That is one of the great things about being a Warriors fan, it’s all about winning, money is never an issue.