Should the Warriors risk it?
It’s seeming more likely in the pre-draft process that Kuminga could be available at 7. Scottie Barnes and Josh Giddey have enough clout with scouts to garner top-six attention. The main issue with the Warriors taking Kuminga is the fit, not the talent.
He’s certainly a worthy gamble at the 7th pick in a vacuum, but the Warriors have definite plans with this roster. Compared to other teams choosing in the lottery, they cannot afford to waste roster spots.
There is always value in developing talent but it comes at a cost of usable win-now roster spots.
Spots that are being occupied by Kuminga, James Wiseman, Justinian Jessup, and Jordan Poole are no guarantee to be plus contributors. 30 percent of the roster going towards development is a tough sell for a would-be contender.
Kuminga was once close to a lock for a top 3-4 draft slot, but his play in the G-League raised enough questions to bump him down a bit. It’s even possible he could slide further if teams wring their hands over his fit and lack of convincing jumper.
Yet despite modern NBA “norms” and the babblings of Shaq and Chuck, the NBA hasn’t seen this few jump shots taken overall since 2006. It’s threes and dunks till the cows come home, and Kuminga has the potential to dominate the latter with a bit of the former.
Letting him slip out of the top 10 would be a mistake, one no team would be willing to make. Do not expect him to be taken outside of the top 7.