Warriors vs. Celtics: The key aspect that could decide the NBA Finals

The Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics are set to square off for the NBA championship, with analysts and fans busy debating who may have the edge ahead of Thursday’s game one at Chase Center.

But as deep and detailed as the matchup can be dissected, the final result may come down to one very simple aspect: the turnover game.

The Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics may possess the best two defenses, but both teams have been plagued by turnover woes this postseason.

The Warriors’ turnover issues have been well documented during their dynasty era. Their high ball movement offense has lent itself to often careless mistakes, yet it was an area they successfully limited on their way to a comfortable 4-1 victory over the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals.

While Golden State’s turnover problems have been a long-term issue (they finished the regular season with the second-most turnovers in the league), it’s an aspect Boston has battled more recently in these playoffs.

The Celtics ranked 13th in turnovers during the regular season, hardly an overwhelming issue as they entered the postseason as the East’s second seed. But they’ve had the eighth highest turnover rate during the playoffs, with the Warriors recording the seventh highest.

For greater context though, five of the six teams with a higher turnover rate were knocked out in the first round. Put simply, the two teams have done an extraordinary job to make the Finals while combating turnover struggles.

The Celtics’ turnover problems don’t sit with being a high ball movement team, but their lack of a traditional primary ball-handler becomes painfully obvious at times. Marcus Smart was moved to the point guard position halfway through the season, a switch that’s worked wonders defensively but may have opened up a hole in their offensive system.

It means that good defenses, as we saw with the Miami Heat during the conference finals, can enforce pressure and cause turnovers against a Celtics unit without a trustworthy lead ball-handler.

The Heat, despite their reputation as an elite defensive team, ranked just 16th and averaged 7.4 steals during the regular season.

However, against Boston, they recorded 8.3 steals and forced the Celtics into 15.3 turnovers per game. That was a spike from Boston’s average of 13.6 during the regular season, with the number jumping to 18.7 during the Celtics’ three losses to the Heat in the Conference Finals.

Not only do both teams possess elite defenses, but they’re also incredibly effective in taking advantage of live-ball turnovers in transition. The Warriors rank second and the Celtics sixth in effective field goal percentage during transition plays this postseason.

It’s not unfair to state that the team that records fewer turnovers, and the one that takes advantage of steals with baskets in transition, may end up lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy at the series’ end.