With the 28th pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, the Golden State Warriors selected Patrick Baldwin Jr, a player that was projected to go much earlier, or much later depending on who you asked.
This would mark the second year in a row that the Warriors managed to select a player they thought would never in a million years fall to them.
Even better for Baldwin is the fact that this team is the best suited to get the absolute best out of him for his career.
The Golden State Warriors have stashed another promising prospect. What can be expected out of Patrick Baldwin in his rookie season?
While many fans want him to be an immediate part of the rotation, he is probably not going to contribute much at any point in his rookie year.
This could change if injuries push him to the starting lineup for a few games or if he surpasses every expectation that the Warriors have of him.
Ever since Steve Kerr took over as head coach, the Golden State Warriors have never given many minutes to rookies unless it was necessary or if the team was just plain bad for a season or two.
We’ve seen only one rookie get even close to meaningful minutes on the roster in a year where they were serious contenders, that being Jonathan Kuminga, the youngest player to ever start in a playoff game.
This just means it is improbable that we see Patrick Baldwin get heavy minutes like some believe he deserves.
He will likely still see around 15 minutes per game and quite possibly play on a two-way deal, allowing him to get reps in with the Santa Cruz Warriors, like James Wiseman, Jordan Poole, and Moses Moody have all done to help their development.
This is a very Warriors type of move to pull, draft a low floor but high ceiling player to develop and hide them behind their current rotational players.
They’ve been doing this since 2012 when they drafted Draymond Green, other notable players that fall into this category are Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, and Moses Moody.
Patrick Baldwin is just the latest in a string of moves that could keep the Warriors in contention for a long time. Similar to what the Saint Louis Cardinals do every single year in baseball.
The benefit to drafting players the way they do is that they can mold these raw prospects into the exact player they will need in the future.
Realistically we can probably expect around eight points per game from the rookie as he is a three-level threat on offense and is capable of athletic plays, although he has an interesting injury history.
Four rebounds per game is also likely as he is a talented rebounder but will play limited minutes and will also share the court with other good rebounders.
He might be able to pull off an assist per game, but he is more of a score-first player, so in limited minutes, this may be difficult.
His percentages might be shoddy as he is only in his first season, but that’s normal, especially for a player that kind of struggled to find their rhythm in college.
All in all, it is only fair to expect a slower start to Patrick Baldwin Jr’s career behind a roster full of stars, but he can still blossom into a franchise cornerstone.