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Golden State Warriors leaving too much up to shooting variance

By Peter O'Keefe

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 10: Klay Thompson #11 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors celebrates after Thompson made a three-point shot over Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on December 10, 2022 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 10: Klay Thompson #11 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors celebrates after Thompson made a three-point shot over Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on December 10, 2022 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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The Golden State Warriors have revolutionized the game with their dynamic backcourt of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, with the pair’s perimeter shooting ushering in a new era of basketball over the last decade.

But for all the great three-point shooting over the years, the Warriors’ four championships in eight seasons has been built on much more than their work from beyond the arc.

Are the Golden State Warriors becoming too reliant on the three-point shot, and conversely, the shooting variance of opposing teams?

The Warriors are averaging 49 three-point attempts over the last three games, and 47.3 over the last ten — they’re incredibly high numbers even for them. In the ten-game stretch, only the Milwaukee Bucks compare at 46.3 per game, with the third-placed Boston Celtics nearly seven attempts below Golden State at 40.6.

There’s obviously reasons for this — you take what the defense gives you, and right now the Warriors and Bucks are getting the most open three-point attempts in the league. However, there has to be some level of fatigue that’s contributing to the current rate, with the argument that Golden State are settling for too many three-point attempts.

Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry is fouled on a three-point attempt against the Wizards on Monday. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry is fouled on a three-point attempt against the Wizards on Monday. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

It would sense for there to be some fatigue — we’re right in the middle of the season, the Warriors are heavily undermanned, and the likes of Curry and Andrew Wiggins are yet to reach peak condition having just returned from injury.

Golden State averaged 39.4 three-point attempts last regular season, a number which dropped to 37.3 during the playoffs. More attempts can be a good thing given the shooting prowess of Curry, Thompson and Jordan Poole, but at some point you open yourself up even more to the inevitable shooting variance, whether that be from game-to-game or quarter-to-quarter. In the ten-game stretch, the Warriors are 17th in the league at just 35.5% from beyond the arc.

Speaking of shooting variance, the Warriors will be hoping there’s a downturn for opposing home teams compared to what they’ve seen over the first half of the season. Golden State are second-worst in the league when it comes to opponent three-point shooting on the road, perhaps the most identifiable aspect in their 5-17 record.

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The reigning NBA champions will be hoping that downturn begins with a Finals rematch in Boston on Thursday, before visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday.

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