Golden State Warriors: The Jordan Poole conundrum and what to make of his inconsistency

After the Golden State Warriors committed to Jordan Poole for the next four years, his play has fallen drastically short of expectations. If the reigning champions have any hope of playoff success, they will need Poole to be better. Failure to improve could put his future in Golden State in jeopardy.

When the Golden State Warriors signed Jordan Poole to a four-year, $140 million contract extension, they put a lot of trust in the future of their young 23-year-old guard. After all, he has shown flashes of brilliance and was key to the Warriors’ 2022 title run. In the playoffs, he averaged 17 points per game on 50.8% shooting and 39.4% from three.

However, the player they signed is not the player they have seen in the 2022-23 season. Poole has been an inefficient volume shooter, turnover prone, and a liability on defense. To put things in perspective, there are currently 34 players attempting seven three-pointers or more per game this season. Of that group, only Charlotte and former Warrior Kelly Oubre Jr is shooting worse than Poole’s 32.6% from deep.

Poole is attempting eight threes per game. That is more attempts than trigger-happy players like Luka Dončić, James Harden and Trae Young. Poole shoots the volume of an elite shooter, but in reality converts at a rate worse than his teammate Draymond Green (32.7%).

But the old adage says that shooters will shoot their way out of slumps, right? That begs to ask the question: Is Poole a ‘shooter’?

The reality is that Poole has never shown over an extended period of time that he can consistently hit his jump shots. His excellent free throw shooting leads one to believe that he can be an elite shooter, but the facts are that in his NBA career, he has never shot over a pedestrian 36.4% from three. His career conversation rate from three is 33.6%. (The league average this season is 36%.) His college career wasn’t exactly blistering either when he hit 37% of his threes.

When looking for an explanation for Poole’s struggles, it’s hard to see anything in the numbers. His field goal percentage has been oddly better on the road (43.1%) than at home (42.5%). This is particularly puzzling given that the Warriors’ 7-26 road record is nearly the worst in the league.

You can blame it on the infamous preseason punch from Draymond Green. But the player that Poole has been this season is actually more consistent with his career averages than the bursts of star potential he has shown. The Warriors bet that Poole could grow into an elite player. They’ve seen him be that type of player, but he hasn’t maintained that trajectory.

You can try to blame the lack of a defined role for his struggles, too. Due to injuries, Poole has been bouncing in and out of the starting lineup. Some nights he is expected to be the initiator of the offense, while other nights he is expected to play more off ball in motion. As a starter he is averaging 24.4 points per game on 43.4 % shooting, whereas off the bench he is averaging 14.4 points on 41.3%. He is still relatively inefficient in both scenarios.

This is not to say that Poole is the scapegoat for the Warriors’ disappointing record. The Warriors’ problems run much deeper than an underperforming Jordan Poole. But as a player that received a big payday, it’s only fair to expect more. In fact, the Warriors’ future depends on it.

When the roster becomes fully healthy and we see the return of Gary Payton II and Andrew Wiggins, Poole’s minutes will likely be somewhat reduced. But still, if the Warriors have title ambitions, they need the 2022 playoffs version of Poole. You could argue that he is a barometer of sorts — they will live or die by his production, or lack thereof.

This conundrum will get particularly interesting if the Warriors continue their current level of play and then make a first or second-round exit in the playoffs. If this scenario plays out, you have to imagine that there will be some major shakeups to the lineup during the offseason.

Green has a player option for next season, Klay Thompson’s contract will enter its final year, and Poole’s extension is set to kick in. If you had looked at this scenario last year, you would have thought that Poole would be untouchable as a future franchise cornerstone. However, now that Draymond has proven he is still elite on the defensive end, and Klay has made an improbable rebound from injury, Poole’s contract extension could be the odd man out. Perhaps the Dubs will look to trade him.

It would be a tough pill to swallow, but there is no way the front office fields the same roster next season if this one continues to be a disappointment. Difficult decisions would have to be made.