Can the Golden State Warriors continue to restrict Kings’ shooting threat?

The Golden State Warriors-Sacramento Kings first-round series is tied at 2-2, but it’s a scoreline that could be very different had Harrison Barnes nailed a wing three at the buzzer of a back-and-forth Game 4 at Chase Center on Sunday.

Barnes’ missed three was hardly a mistake from either side — it was a shot the Warriors were happy to give up, and one the Kings were happy to take. That miss may have cost Sacramento in that moment, but their poor three-point shooting in general is what’s helped tilt the momentum back in favor of Golden State.

Will the Sacramento Kings trend back to their regular season three-point percentage, or can the Golden State Warriors continue to restrict their perimeter threat?

The Kings ranked seventh during the regular season for three-point percentage at 36.9%. Through four games in the postseason that’s dropped to a paltry 30.3%, ranked 14th of the 16 playoff teams.

Golden State actually sat behind the Kings in three-point percentage during the regular season. They’ve fallen slightly during this series as well, though their 33.9% is still much closer to their usual mark compared to their opponents.

The Kings have a number of players personally struggling, starting with their leading three-point shooter in Kevin Huerter. The 24-year-old took 510 triples (6.8 per game) during the regular season, knocking them down at a highly-efficient 40.2%.

Huerter can’t seem to buy a bucket from deep so far through four games, nailing just 3 of his 21 attempts (14.3%). It’s now leading to serious question marks among Kings fans about his starting role, particularly given Davion Mitchell’s tenacity guarding Stephen Curry.

Golden State doubled Fox and left Barnes slightly open on the last play of Game 4 for a reason, with the former Warrior knocking down just 25% of his three-point attempts so far this series. In fact, only Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox are shooting above their regular season percentage. The latter is taking nearly double (9.5) the number of three-point attempts than he did during the regular season (5).

Fox’s continued dominance, particularly getting down hill and in the mid-range, will force the Warriors to continue collapsing and provide perimeter shooters with open looks. In a make-or-miss league, the Kings efficiency from the outside may be what determines the final result.