If the 2023 offseason is going to be remembered for anything, it’s likely as the summer of the trade request. Since the very start of free agency, the narrative around the league has been dominated by unrequited trade requests by the likes of James Harden and Damian Lillard.
In contrast to the telemarketer approach of Lillard’s camp, or the scorched-earth approach of Harden, another superstar has begun to whisper at what would happen if his current team doesn’t maintain a contender. In contrast to the other players on the trade block, this superstar looks like a tantalizing addition to the Golden State Warriors.
That player is two-time MVP and 2021 NBA Champion Giannis Antetokounmpo. He and the Milwaukee Bucks fell in the first-round of the playoffs last season, and while the Bucks worked this summer to bring back their veteran core, Antetokounmpo is clearly concerned that they may not maintain a contender around him forever.
Could the Golden State Warriors trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo?
If the Bucks have a poor start to the season, and Antetokounmpo communicates to the Bucks that he wants to move to a contender, is there a scenario where they start fielding trade offers? Perhaps not; the second-best player in franchise history is not going to be moved at a moment’s notice.
Let’s just assume for a moment that they do reach that point; can the Warriors present a deal that the Bucks would make? And is the cost too great for Golden State?
Laying out the Giannis deal for the Warriors
There are a few massive considerations to take into account in a deal for Giannis Antetokounmpo. First, the Golden State Warriors need to match the salary of Antetokounmpo. Given the Warriors’ tax situation, they can’t take back extra salary in a deal. They also can’t wait until next offseason to make such a trade, either, as they won’t be able to aggregate players at that time.
So any offer needs to at least match Antetokounmpo’s salary; secondly, the value in a deal has to be enough for the Bucks. Klay Thompson’s expiring contract and a couple of firsts aren’t going to get it done. Even with their backs against the wall, the Bucks will have the leverage to get the best offers from around the league.
Finally, the Warriors have to be able to contend after making this deal. If they can’t, they’ll have sacrificed their future and their present, and Antetokounmpo won’t sign a new deal with the Warriors either. That makes the trade package involved quite tricky, but not impossible. Here’s how it could look:
This kind of a package for the Bucks would allow them to completely tear down, moving the rest of their veterans around the league, or they could retool to try and continue competing around Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Andrew Wiggins.
They get two young blue-chip prospects in Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga, a rookie first-rounder in Podziemski, and some positively enticing first-round picks. Getting Golden State’s 2030 first-round pick if it falls from 1-20 would be one of the most valuable picks that has been traded, and it comes with two other unprotected firsts and three pick swaps.
There may be a better package out there, but it’s hard to compete with the combination of players and picks with this offer. Assuming the Bucks were on board with this deal, can the Warriors afford to say yes?
Would the Warriors say yes?
The sheer volume that the Warriors would be sending to the Milwaukee Bucks is staggering. They would be moving three recent first-round picks (Nos. 7, 14 and 19 in their respective drafts), their starting small forward, a key bench player and complete control of six-straight drafts to the Bucks.
The team they would have after this deal would be fairly thin, but the star power at the top would be powerful. Antetokounmpo is still in his prime and a perennial top-5 MVP finisher, and he has never played off of a shooter like Stephen Curry (or even Klay Thompson for that matter). The defensive pairing of Antetokounmpo and Draymond Green is staggering to consider.
The Warriors would need to follow the Phoenix Suns blueprint next summer, nailing their minimum signings to build around a small but powerful core. The timetable for this group would likewise be short, given the age of the Warriors’ current guys, but adding Antetokounmpo would almost certainly extend it. Without any draft capital to attach to him, they may be inclined to keep Chris Paul, re-sign Klay Thompson and just resign themselves to paying the piper for a couple of seasons to go after another title.
It would be much better to include Chris Paul instead of Wiggins, but at that point the Bucks likely don’t give this the green light. Keeping back a swap gives them some small ammunition to upgrade via trade, but it may take everything to get this deal done. It’s not often that you get an MVP candidate via trade, however, so if it takes everything they have it is still worth it. The Warriors would be establishing a cliff after this core ages out, but the time to maximize is right now, anyway.
This is an expensive deal, and it puts real pressure on Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office to fill out the roster without many resources. It is also a deal the Warriors would absolutely have to make.
Grade: A