It usually takes an alien to beat another one. Last season, the Warriors' alien – Steph Curry – got the best of the Spurs' – Victor Wembanyama. Curry led Golden State to back-to-back victories in San Antonio, scoring 95 points over that two-game span.
San Antonio comes into Friday's game riding a league-best 10-game winning streak after starting their season 0-2. During that stretch, Wembanyama is averaging 32.6 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 4.5 blocks in just 29.4 minutes per game. With him on the floor, the Spurs have outscored their opponents by over 22 points per game. Otherworldly.
"You got any ideas for Wemby?" Steve Kerr said to a reporter when asked how he planned on dealing with the Spurs' size and athleticism.
Meanwhile, the Warriors will have to rely on their rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, Brandin Podziemski, and their frequently lauded, but depleted, depth. The rotations without Steph will be interesting. Who leads the second unit? Podziemski or Lendeborg? Who becomes the third option? De'Anthony Melton?
So, with all that in mind, do the Warriors even have a puncher's chance with their alien on the shelf and the Spurs' in peak form? The answer is yes, but Golden State would have to play a near-perfect game and accomplish something few teams have so far this season: contain Wembanyama. Here are three keys to a Warriors upset.
Win the three-point math
Probably the most obvious and important one at the same time, especially when facing arguably the best shot-blocker in NBA history in Wemby. The key for Golden State will be to stretch Wemby out and repeatedly involve whichever player he's guarding. Pick-and-pops with Al Horford, short rolls from Draymond Green, or Lendeborg's ghost screens, you name it. Driving directly into a stationary Wemby is a losing strategy.
There are two points to be optimistic about. Number one, the Warriors have shown that they can hit threes even without Steph – they knocked down 17 in Houston on Wednesday, 17 in Phoenix with most of their starters resting, and 22 in their win against the Clippers without Curry and Green. Everybody needs to take and make threes, including Green, who's taken just 11 on the season.
Number two, the Spurs rank 26th in opponent three-point percentage at 37.9% and 28th in contested threes. One key area: above the break. Teams have shot 39.9% from that area against San Antonio this season. The Warriors as a team are at 39.3%; Lendeborg is at 41.8% and Melton at a staggering 47.7%.
In their two wins last season, in addition to Curry's magic, the Warriors chucked up a ton of threes: 57 and 45. Offensive execution and spacing without Steph to create open looks will be the major challenge. They can't get disorganized like they did in the fourth quarter against the Rockets.
A couple of benchmark numbers: hold San Antonio under 35% from beyond the arc and make at least 17 threes. Fourteen of the Spurs' 20 losses last season came when they shot below 35% from three. They went 21-14 below that mark and 41-6 when they reached it. Both of their losses this season also came below that mark. When opponents made at least 17 threes, the Spurs went 6-9 last season, compared to 56-11 when opponents made 16 or fewer. Golden State hit 21 and 17 threes in their two wins.
Keep Wembanyama away from the rim
Through his 12 games so far this season, Wemby has taken 43.6% of his shots at the rim and converted them at a 79.2% rate. On the flip side, he's shooting only 30% from midrange and 31.9% on above-the-break threes. The Warriors don't have the personnel to deal with Wemby at the rim; not many teams in the league do.
But they can go with a strategy the Blazers, among other teams, have been using against him: put a center on Stephon Castle and a wing on Wemby. Doing so keeps the slower center out of the Fox-Wemby pick-and-rolls and allows him to patrol the paint as a helper.
The thought process behind that strategy is that teams choose to live with Castle being open from three. Castle is shooting 31.5% from beyond the arc so far this season and just 36.5% when considered "wide open" (no defenders within six feet) – which isn't threatening enough to force defenses to respect his outisde shot. His 5.3 wide-open three-point attempts per game are the second-most in the NBA behind only Cameron Boozer.
The risk with that approach is that Wemby can post up a much smaller defender or seal him underneath the basket. Whoever guards him, probably Green or Lendeborg if they opt for that game plan, must make him catch the ball several feet outside his preferred area and turn him into a jump shooter.
Take advantage of the non-Wemby minutes
Last but not least, the Warriors' depth needs to shine. It's still very early in the season, but the Spurs' numbers with and without Wemby have been mind-blowing: they've posted a +30 net rating in his 360 minutes on the floor and a -18.4 mark when he's sitting on the bench. Last season, their net rating went from +17 with him to +0.6 without him.
The Warriors' bench has been weakened by Steph's and Brandon Williams' injuries, which will likely push Melton into the starting lineup. LJ Cryer will also receive more opportunities and could play 20 minutes a night. He scored 13 points and was a +18 in his 18 minutes against the Rockets (three of those minutes came in garbage time when the Warriors outscored Houston by 11 points). More importantly, Gui Santos needs to get right. He's totaled just six points in his 45 minutes since being cleared to play after missing a couple of games with knee tendinitis. He had four turnovers in 12 minutes against the Rockets.
On the season, the Warriors' bench has outscored San Antonio's by over 15 points. With Luke Kornet, Wemby's backup, on the floor, the Spurs have posted a -15.5 net rating. The Spurs' starters have outscored their opponents by an average of 13 points per game. So Golden State desperately needs to win those 15 to 18 minutes without Wemby by at least eight to 10 points to have a legitimate chance.
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