The Golden State Warriors will have likely already had negotiations with Brandin Podziemski's agent over a rookie extension, but they've just been given more leverage after Amen Thompson agreed to a five-year, $208 million contract with the Houston Rockets on Thursday.
Two rookie extensions have been now been signed this offseason, with Thompson taking Victor Wembanyama's approach of leaving some money on the table rather than pursue the absolute full max.
Podziemski won't be getting anywhere near the $40+ million deals that Wembanyama and now Thompson have got, but it may provide an indication that rookie extension candidates should be taking slightly less not just to help their team in today's apron era, but to secure a significant contract rather than take the risk of restricted free agency.
Amen Thompson gives Warriors more Brandin Podziemski leverage
The Warriors should be hesitant to give Podziemski an extension this offseason anyway, such is the importance of their payroll situation in the next 12 months where they project to have significant cap space next summer.
They should still be open to an extension if it's at a team-friendly number though. Perhaps Podziemski sees what Wembanyama and Thompson have done, and just as importantly the difficulty that other young players have gone through in restricted free agency over the past 12 months, and decides that he'll take less to secure a contract now before the season begins.
The reality of that could look like Podziemski taking closer to $15 million annually, rather than chasing a $20 million deal that Golden State aren't likely to give, and then be headed for restricted free agency where multiple players have been stuck over the past two offseasons.
The Warriors should be playing hardball to some degree knowing the threat of restricted free agency, their projected cap space next year, and the fact Wembanyama and Thompson have taken less than the full max.
Warriors have little downside remaining patient with Brandin Podziemski
What's the cost of Golden State remaining patient and letting Podziemski enter free agency, or seeing if he's willing to take a team-friendly deal in the next six weeks that should age terrifically well over the coming years?
The downside is that Podziemski breaks out in a way many envisioned after his impressive rookie season, but that hasn't been quite forthcoming in the past two years. The Warriors might be forced to pay over $30 million annually on a new deal in restricted free agency, but even then that's a win because they'd have a great young player who can be part of the short and long-term future.
It's still difficult to see an extension being signed in the short-term for the reasons just laid out, but perhaps Podziemski sees the landscape across the league and accepts a deal the Warriors are more than comfortable with.
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