Many have been quick to write off the Golden State Warriors given their age and perhaps a lack of talent compared to the likes of the Oklahoma City Thunder, but this older, highly experienced team could still be a sneaky threat in the Western Conference entering the season.
The Warriors may have been in the headlines this offseason given Jonathan Kuminga's free agency drama, yet few have taken them seriously in championship conversation. That might be until now after ESPN's Kevin Pelton sensationally ranked Golden State second in the West based on his model for win projections.
Warriors could be a legitimate threat according to ESPN's Kevin Pelton
Most over/under win projections has the Warriors at about 46.5, having won 48 last season after a late surge following the blockbuster mid-season addition of 6x All-Star Jimmy Butler. Having Butler on the roster for a full season is a big part of the reason why Pelton has predicted Golden State to blow through their over/under total, having projected 56.1 wins which is second in the entire league.
"Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season -- they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season -- the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team," Pelton wrote.
Pelton unsurprisingly has the reigning champion Thunder winning the most games in the league, but it is interesting that he has them claiming three less victories than their 62.5 over/under line suggests.
Denver is projected to finish third in the West, yet their 52.2 estimated wins is nearly four games below Golden State. The L.A. Clippers, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers round out the top six, meaning the Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to be relegated to the play-in tournament as the eighth-seed (below the Memphis Grizzlies).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been projected to win six games less than their over/under line entering the season, but they still sit atop the Eastern Conference ahead of the Orlando Magic, New York Knicks and shockingly the Indiana Pacers who rank fourth despite Tyrese Haliburton's injury absence and Myles Turner's free agency departure during the offseason.
Most fans and analysts won't be entering the season believing the Warriors are the second-best team in the league, but at the very least these ESPN projections do prove that the franchise deserves a little more discussion when it comes to championship contention.