After a hot shooting start to the season that led them briefly to the best record in the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors have cooled off significantly over recent weeks amid a poor stretch of form.
The Warriors did find some rhythm in drilling 27 threes in Sunday's 143-133 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, but otherwise ranked just 23rd in 3-point percentage in their previous 12 games. That's far from ideal for a Stephen Curry-led offense and one that relies so heavily on their perimeter shooting.
No Warrior player has struggled more than Gary Payton II
There's a number of Golden State players who have struggled significantly shooting the ball from distance through the first 25 games. Jonathan Kuminga shot 44% from deep in preseason but has fallen to 32.2% during the regular season, while Brandin Podziemski has gone from a 38.5% 3-point shooter in his rookie year to just 25% so far in his second.
Yet no one is struggling more than Gary Payton II who has made just four of his 29 (13.8%) 3-point attempts to start the season. Clearly it's never been a strength of Payton's game, but the dramatic downfall is becoming a huge problem for the Warriors.
In past years the fan-favorite guard has at least been able to occasionally make defenses pay for sagging off him, particularly in the corners where he's shot 37.6% for his career. Payton has shot at least 35.8% from deep in each of the previous three seasons, including 50% in 2022-23 albeit in a limited 22-game sample size.
Now Payton is becoming a complete non-threat from beyond the arc, putting his place in the rotation in jeopardy and so too his future with the franchise. According to NBA tracking, 27 of Payton's 29 3-point attempts this season have been off catch-and-shoots, with the other two coming off one dribble. 25 of his 29 attempts have been wide open (meaning the closest defender is six feet away or more), while the other four have been classified as open (defender between 4-6 feet).
Payton has made just one of his past 15 3-point attempts, which has come at the worst possible time given Golden State have just traded for someone who could take a fair share of his minutes. In Dennis Schroder the Warriors now have someone who can provide some of what Payton does defensively, while clearly being an astronomical upgrade offensively.
Payton's shooting woes must put him perilously close to being out of Steve Kerr's rotation with Schroder now entering the fold. He remains a highly impactful perimeter defender as he showcased against Anthony Edwards just 10 days ago, but the shooting issues are starting to become too much to overcome.
If Payton was to fall out of the rotation upon Schroder's arrival, then Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office will have no other option but to go out and try to utilize his $9.1 million expiring contract in a trade before the February 6 deadline.
Ideally Payton will start hitting some jump-shots and see an uptick in his percentages, allowing him to rediscover the impact that can make him such a valuable 18-22 minute per game player in the Warrior rotation.