The Golden State Warriors will eventually sign Jonathan Kuminga to the two-year $45 million offer they have made to the restricted free agent. Sam Vecenie laid it out perfectly on a recent episode of his Game Theory podcast. Golden State is offering a significant amount of money, and Kuminga would be giving up nearly $14 million this season if he accepts the qualifying offer.
The Warriors are declining sign-and-trade proposals and playing hardball with the 22-year-old forward. They want to retain him as a tradeable asset. No other team has the cap space to sign him, so Kuminga either plays for the Dubs or leaves via a sign-and-trade. Golden State has already ruined the relationship, so they have no reason to give into any of the player's demands now.
Kuminga is not turning down the mid-level exception to play on the qualifying offer. Yes, the Suns are offering more, but they can’t acquire his services without a sign-and-trade. Kuminga’s options are to take Golden State’s number or play out the season on the qualifying offer. The 6’8 forward would be losing a lot of money and value if he does the latter.
Jonathan Kuminga will eventually sign the Warriors’ 2-year offer
Kuminga wants out of the Bay Area. The Warriors keep disrespecting him and have never fully embraced his talents. The seventh overall draft pick in 2021 has never played more than 26.3 minutes per game and was out of their playoff rotation before Stephen Curry’s injury. There is no denying Kuminga’s skill, but he needs the right situation to thrive.
Signing the qualifying offer guarantees he will leave Golden State after the 2025-26 season and gives him a no-trade clause.
It will also leaves the Dubs with zero reason to play him. Head coach Steve Kerr has already questioned Kuminga’s fit next to Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green. The Warriors don't need to further explore that if they know the relationship has an end date. Kuminga likely gets buried on the bench and further decreases his value heading into unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2026.
This is a no-win situation for both sides. Kuminga wants a larger role on a franchise that believes in him. The Warriors want a tradeable asset on their books to go big fish hunting before the deadline. They are willing to risk Kuminga being unhappy and causing firestorms. Golden State knows their window with Curry is closing, and the franchise is trying to maximize it.
Expect Jonathan Kuminga to return on a two-year deal. The Golden State Warriors will attempt to trade him before the deadline to make everyone happy. The 22-year-old will get a new home for the stretch run, and the Dubs hopefully get a needed piece in their path to title contention. It is the only fitting end to a messy saga that will further draw out. Kuminga has no reason to act now, but this is the obvious path forward. Soon, he will have to accept it and cash in the much larger payday.
The situation is unfortunate from all sides. The Warriors ruined the relationship and are trying to salvage the last shred of value. Hopefully, they learn their lesson and don’t repeat this nightmare.