The Golden State Warriors opened the post–Jimmy Butler injury portion of their season with a 145–127 loss to the Toronto Raptors -- a sign that the road ahead could be a grueling one.
Each half represented a different path the Warriors could take moving forward: the first exposed the issues without Jimmy Butler, while the second offered a glimpse of how they might compensate
Steve Kerr opted to insert combo guard Brandin Podziemski into the starting lineup to add playmaking next to Stephen Curry, but the lack of scoring and shot-making hurt Golden State in the first half.
Golden State's margin for error shrinks without Butler
Butler’s absence loomed heavily through the first 24 minutes, with the Warriors getting completely outplayed by the Raptors. Without him, Golden State looked flat offensively, largely because Toronto was double-teaming Stephen Curry on nearly every possession and the lack of a secondary scoring threat was evident.
The Warriors failed to capitalize on the opportunities created by Curry’s gravity, shooting just 40% from the field and 6-of-23 from three. Butler would typically be the one punishing opponents with his scoring or playmaking, and that void is difficult to fill. Golden State missed eight shots labeled as layups in the first half, something that just can’t happen.
While Golden State attacked the rim at a normal rate -- particularly Jonathan Kuminga, who went to the line eight times -- the Warriors finished just 17-of-26 from the charity stripe (65.4%), their lowest free-throw percentage of the season. It was another stark reminder of what Golden State will miss without Jimmy Butler, as the 36-year-old forward shot 86.4% from the line on nearly eight attempts per game.
The Warriors committed 19 turnovers on Tuesday night, including five from De’Anthony Melton. Golden State will need to take better care of the ball, and Butler’s absence puts a damper on that task. In the seven games the 6x All-Star didn’t suit up for this season, Golden State averaged just under 17 miscues per game -- a mark that would rank worst in the league. Turnovers have been a major swing factor for the Warriors, as they're 4–10 when committing more than 17.
Will Jonathan Kuminga fill the void going forward?
The second half was far more encouraging. The Warriors put up a season-best 44 points in the third quarter, led by Kuminga’s 12 points in six minutes in his first playing time since Dec. 18. Kuminga helped fill some of the gaps left by Butler’s injury with his ability to defend, rebound, and attack the rim.
With JK on the floor, Golden State was far more aggressive, scoring 20 points in the paint in the third-quarter -- as many as it did in the entire first half. That’s exactly what the Warriors need down the stretch: a scorer not named Stephen Curry who can either go get a bucket or get to the free-throw line, and Kuminga fits the bill.
Depth will be key to how the Warriors survive the second part of the season. Fortunately, Golden State has the second-best bench in the NBA, averaging 44.8 points per game. That depth showed in the second half, when the bench scored 56 of the Warriors’ 77 points, led by Kuminga’s 20 and Buddy Hield’s 25 on 6-of-6 shooting from deep. The question now becomes: should Kuminga take over Butler’s role as the leader of that second unit?
Despite a poor first half, the Warriors finished the game with above-average shooting numbers, hitting 16 threes on 43 attempts (37.2%) and making 51.6% of their shots from the field. If Golden State can consistently perform at that level, it will more often than not come away with a win.
Last night was an anomaly though, as Toronto -- which ranks 30th in three-point percentage -- knocked down 61.8% of its shots from distance and 59.3% from the field. Immanuel Quickley also had a career night, scoring 40 points on 11-of-13 shooting while adding 10 assists.
What's next for Golden State?
It’s now up to the front office to decide whether to give this roster a chance and bring Butler back next season for one last dance with the Curry–Green–Butler trio, or pivot toward trading Kuminga -- and potentially Butler -- along with draft picks for win-now help to contend right away. The Warriors have a little more than two weeks to evaluate their options, with the February 5 trade deadline looming.
The Warriors went 6–2 on their eight-game homestand and are now set to head out on a four-game road trip, starting Thursday in Dallas. Golden State will then face the Timberwolves -- a team battling for playoff seeding -- twice in three days before closing out the trip in Utah next Wednesday.